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Caixin Futures Energy and Chemical Analysis: Crude Oil Remains Highly Volatile at High Levels, Methanol Runs Strong

Caixin Futures Energy and Chemical Analysis: Crude Oil Remains Highly Volatile at High Levels, Methanol Runs Strong

汇通财经汇通财经2026/03/20 13:00
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⑴ Crude Oil: Israel has successively killed Larijani and the Minister of Intelligence, and the attack on Iran's largest natural gas facility has led to production shutdown. Iran retaliated by attacking oil fields in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, and the US may also attack oil facilities at Iran's most important oil export port, Khark Island. Currently, the US and Iran remain in a standoff with high uncertainty, and it is difficult to see clear signs of easing in the short term. The overall energy and chemical sector remains at high levels with high volatility. ⑵ Fuel Oil: The scope of attacks on Middle Eastern infrastructure and oil facilities has expanded, oil-producing countries in the Middle East are cutting production, and domestic high-sulfur fuel oil imports are highly dependent, with Iranian high-sulfur fuel oil accounting for 20% of domestic imports. The Strait of Hormuz is not smooth, and the supply gap is difficult to recover in the short term, so prices are expected to remain strong and volatile at high levels. ⑶ Glass: During the week, one production line each in South China and Southwest China was shut down, and the current daily melting capacity has dropped to 145,800 tons. Orders from deep processing factories are recovering slowly, downstream buyers are cautious, mainly focusing on rigid demand. Due to low supply and the expectation of the peak season "Golden March and Silver April" providing some support for prices, prices are expected to fluctuate widely. ⑷ Soda Ash: This week's output is 818,100 tons, and maintenance will increase next week, with the operating rate expected to drop to around 82% and output to over 780,000 tons. Today, soda ash capacity utilization is 83.57%, companies are undergoing maintenance, and loads are decreasing. Downstream demand remains stable, maintaining rigid demand replenishment. Current spot-futures basis quotations: Hebei warehouse delivery 05-30, Shahe 05+10, Hubei warehouse delivery 05 flat, Inner Mongolia factory delivery 05-300 to 340. Overall, although energy costs provide support, mid-term supply remains high, and the driving force is weak. Considering marginal reduction due to maintenance, it is not advisable to aggressively short, and prices should be viewed as fluctuating widely. ⑸ Caustic Soda: Today, the low-grade caustic soda market in Shandong remains stable overall, with some companies raising prices slightly due to low inventory, while most companies balance shipments mainly for rigid demand. Tight supply of raw materials has led related chlor-alkali companies to reduce or plan to reduce production loads, and overseas facilities have shut down, leading to positive sentiment. This week, the national liquid caustic soda sample companies' inventory is 500,700 tons, down 6.28% week-on-week, easing inventory pressure. However, since caustic soda futures are trading at a premium, volatility will be greater, and market fluctuations are expected to intensify, but marginally, bullish factors still dominate. ⑹ Methanol: Today, Taicang spot price is 3050, down 95, and Inner Mongolia North Line price is 2315, down 7.5. The US and Israel's attack on Iran's largest natural gas facility has led to production shutdown, and Iran retaliated by attacking oil fields in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, further escalating geopolitical tensions. The domestic methanol market performed slightly weaker during the day, with futures first declining and then rebounding, and port paper goods trading focus was looser than yesterday. Overall, geopolitical conflicts have caused delays and reductions in methanol import sources, and port inventory decreased by 51,100 tons this week. Methanol continues to show a strong and volatile trend.
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