Bitcoin long-term holder selling slows, signaling 'potentially constructive' trend: VanEck

VanEck said that bitcoin (BTC) miner selling pressure remained steady while long-term holders reduced their distribution activity, noting that this trend is a favorable signal for the market.

VanEck's Mid-March 2026 Bitcoin ChainCheck report shows that long-term holder selling slowed, with transfer volume declining month-over-month across every age cohort of the cryptocurrency. 

"Declining transfer activity among these cohorts typically signals reduced distribution pressure from experienced market participants," VenEck analysts wrote in the Thursday report, describing the development as "a potentially constructive signal."

Miner selling steadies

Meanwhile, the selling pressure among bitcoin miners remained steady rather than accelerating despite tighter profitability during the past month. Total miner revenues declined 11% month-over-month, while bitcoin mining equities fell 7%.

"Despite this deterioration in economics, miners did not meaningfully increase selling pressure," the report said. "Miner outflows to exchanges rose only 1% in BTC terms, suggesting most operators are attempting to preserve their remaining reserves rather than aggressively liquidating holdings," the report added.

Aggregate miner balances, excluding wallets attributed to Satoshi Nakamoto, stood at approximately 684,000 BTC, down only 0.5% year-over-year. Over the same period, roughly 164,000 new BTC were mined.

"Miners effectively sold the entire newly issued supply," the report said, noting that holdings have been gradually declining since late 2023 to fund operations and capital expenditures.

Crypto to AI

This comes amid a broader shift in the mining industry, with more firms moving toward AI-centric business models. Bitdeer sold all of its BTC treasury, while Core Scientific and MARA plan to liquidate holdings to move to the AI infrastructure business, the report added.

"These moves underscore the increasing capital pressures facing miners as the economics of pure-play Bitcoin mining tighten," VanEck said. "Should bitcoin prices remain depressed, miners may be forced to accelerate BTC sales to cover recurring dollar-denominated costs, potentially increasing supply pressure."

The report linked these trends with broader subdued onchain activity, with overall transfer volume down 31% and daily fees dropping 27%, partly due to trading shifting to offchain venues, such as derivatives and exchange-traded products.

Bitcoin experienced increased volatility in recent weeks amid persisting geopolitical uncertainty and the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates, signaling a hawkish outlook for the U.S. economy.