an exchange Research: Israeli Unilateral Ceasefire, Trump Advocates for Truce, Oil Supply Pressure Eases, Risk Assets Rally

BlockBeats News, March 20th, an exchange Research posted on social media stating that Israel attacked Iran's South Pars natural gas field, has currently paused further attacks on Iranian energy facilities, and agreed to stop future attacks as requested by Trump. Meanwhile, due to the rise in energy prices, the US may lift sanctions on about 140 million barrels of Iranian oil already in transit, which could impact global oil supply.

US economic data remains neutral and has not altered the stagflation situation. Initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell, while continued jobless claims rose slightly; new home sales were well below expectations (possibly weather-related). These data did not signal an economic recession, but combined with the previous strong PPI data, further solidified the market's view that the economy faces persistent inflationary pressures rather than a complete contraction.

Yesterday, the market showed a two-stage trend. Early pressure was mainly due to another attack on energy infrastructure in the Gulf region (Iran missile attack on Haifa refinery, closure of Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port), as well as G10 central banks maintaining unchanged interest rates, putting pressure on risk assets. Towards the end of the trading session, comments made by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu — stating that Iran has lost its ability to enrich uranium or produce ballistic missiles, the war might end sooner than expected, and another attack on the South Pars oil field is unlikely — were reinforced by favorable news on the US supply side (the White House ruled out a crude oil export ban, Treasury Secretary Yellen hinted at further releases from the strategic petroleum reserve, Chevron restarted its large aviation fuel facility, and Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port resumed loading operations). Oil prices plummeted, leading to a weakening US dollar, increased bond demand, and a stock market rally at the close; Bitcoin also participated in this rebound.