ECB staff forecasts for the euro area economy, March 2026

Euro Area Economic Performance and Emerging Challenges

In 2025, the eurozone demonstrated strong economic stability, managing to withstand both unpredictable circumstances and disruptions in trade policies. Throughout the year, forecasts for growth were steadily upgraded, and this encouraging trend largely continued into early 2026.

Nevertheless, the conflict in the Middle East has reintroduced considerable uncertainty, casting a shadow over future prospects. Interruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz—a vital passage for international oil and LNG shipments—alongside assaults on energy facilities, have triggered sharp fluctuations in global energy markets and driven up oil and gas prices.