Gold: TD Securities notes that crowded trades face heightened risks due to ongoing conflicts

101 finance2026/03/19 14:15

By:101 finance

Bitget offers one-stop trading for cryptocurrencies, stocks, and gold. Trade now!

A welcome pack worth 6200 USDT for new users! Sign up now!

Gold Market Faces Headwinds Amid Geopolitical Tensions

Daniel Ghali, Senior Commodity Strategist at TD Securities, cautions that gold is encountering significant obstacles as ongoing Middle Eastern conflicts dampen official sector demand and Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) persist in offloading their holdings. He notes that countries in the Middle East and other major energy importers may scale back their gold acquisitions. Nevertheless, the broader upward trend for gold remains intact from a technical perspective.

Challenges from Official Sector and CTA Activity

According to Ghali, CTAs are likely to maintain their selling activity in the near future, though the volume may be limited. He points out that the economic fallout from regional conflicts has prompted Middle Eastern nations—previously key but often unreported buyers of gold—to potentially halt their bullion purchases altogether.

This shift has exposed gold prices to increased downside risk. As global energy costs rise, the likelihood of reduced gold buying is spreading to other energy-importing countries. Ghali warns that, in the absence of robust official sector support, institutional investors in gold may find themselves increasingly exposed.

With official sector demand waning, institutional participants lose a crucial safety net in what has become an overcrowded market. Additionally, an unprecedented surge in retail investor activity has contributed to recent price volatility.

Ghali suggests that while opportunities to invest in gold will arise, the long-term bullish trendline for the metal is still positioned about $1,000 per ounce below current levels. This indicates that gold could experience further declines without jeopardizing its overall bull market trajectory.

(This piece was produced with assistance from artificial intelligence and subsequently reviewed by an editor.)

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

Understand the market, then trade.

Bitget offers one-stop trading for cryptocurrencies, stocks, and gold.

Trade now！

By Doug Busch Shopify is no longer a pandemic-era growth story that simply failed to slow down. It is compounding at a pace few software platforms its size still manage. In the second quarter of 2026, sales on its platform rose 32%. That was the fifth straight quarter of growth exceeding 30%. Merchants are also using more of Shopify's own tools, from payments to Shop Pay, and new channels like AI shopping agents are starting to increase demand. The simple bull case is that the stock already commands a huge share of independent online commerce, and that position should become more valuable as more buying moves through its checkout. A rule of market mechanics is that the vast majority of an individual security's gain is driven by its underlying sector. Within technology, software has staged a robust recovery, joining semiconductors to power the broader sector higher. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF has maintained an upward trajectory since its mid-April lows, though the advance from $74 to $112 has been choppy as bulls repeatedly stepped in to defend when necessary. Breadth across large-cap software has expanded significantly, with 24 constituents surging over 20% over the past three months. During that same three-month window, Shopify generated outstanding relative strength, advancing 36%, more than doubling the IGV's 17% gain over the same period. Expect the stock's outperformance to persist as software momentum broadens. Let's examine the daily and monthly charts to outline the technical drivers behind this thesis. Looking at the daily chart, the ratio chart against the IGV shows persistent outperformance extending back to mid-May. The stock is riding an eight-session winning streak, during which price action cleared a double-bottom-with-handle pivot at $151.39. Within this broader base, the stock recorded a bullish golden cross in late August and successfully filled its Sept. 10 price gap, tracing back to its Aug. 4 session, the day before a powerful earnings reaction sent the stock surging 17% hi

Dow Jones•2026/10/09 03:10