Gold: TD Securities notes that risks arising from conflicts pose challenges to this popular trade

101 finance2026/03/19 14:15

By:101 finance

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Gold Market Faces Headwinds Amid Geopolitical Tensions

Daniel Ghali, Senior Commodity Strategist at TD Securities, cautions that gold is encountering significant obstacles as ongoing conflicts in the Middle East dampen official sector demand and Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) persist in offloading their positions. He notes that countries in the Middle East, along with other major energy importers, may scale back their gold acquisitions. Nevertheless, the broader upward trajectory for gold remains technically unbroken in the long run.

Risks from Declining Official Demand and CTA Activity

According to Ghali, CTAs are likely to continue reducing their gold holdings in the near future, though the extent of these sales may be moderate. He points out that the economic fallout from the Middle Eastern conflict could prompt nations in the region—who have been significant but often unreported buyers of gold—to halt their purchases entirely.

This shift introduces new vulnerabilities for gold prices. As energy costs rise, the risk of reduced gold buying is spreading to other countries that rely heavily on energy imports. Ghali warns that, without the backing of official sector demand, institutional investors could find their positions in gold increasingly exposed.

The decline in official sector interest removes a safety net for institutions involved in what has become a crowded trade. In recent months, unprecedented activity from retail investors has already contributed to sharp price swings.

While there may be future opportunities to invest, Ghali observes that the long-term trendline for gold's bull market sits about $1,000 per ounce below current levels, suggesting there is considerable room for further declines without threatening the overall bullish outlook.

(This article was produced with the assistance of artificial intelligence and subsequently reviewed by an editor.)

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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