Caixin Futures Agricultural Products Strategy: Palm Oil Remains Strong Amid Fluctuations, Short Selling Recommended for Live Hogs and Eggs at Highs

⑴ Palm Oil: The overnight rebound in international oil prices provided some support, but domestic oil futures, after surging in the early session, failed to maintain momentum as funds remained cautious. In the spot market, Guangdong 24-degree palm oil spot price rose by 30 yuan to 9,720 yuan. Pay attention to the support at the 10-day moving average; the trend is expected to remain strong with fluctuations. ⑵ Soybean Meal: The surge in crude oil prices has driven up vegetable oil prices, pushing up the cost of imported soybeans. Domestic soybean imports from January to March saw a significant decline, and customs clearance delays have further tightened short-term supply, pushing up meal prices. However, after April, the volume of imported soybeans will gradually recover. Beware of the risk of price corrections in the market; it is recommended to remain on the sidelines for now. ⑶ Corn: The main reason for the strong price is that inventories at northern ports remain lower year-on-year, but the release of policy grain and the supply of wheat and rice are limiting the upside. Feed demand is not strong due to weak prices of livestock products, while demand for deep processing remains robust. Prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels in the short term, with limited upside; it is recommended to remain on the sidelines for now. ⑷ Live Hogs: Significant supply pressure is the core reason for the continued price decline. The absolute number of breeding sows remains above the normal retention level, and medium-term supply remains high. It is recommended to maintain a strategy of selling on rallies for the 05 contract. ⑸ Eggs: Rising feed costs and marginally reduced supply pressure are jointly driving the market. The feed cost per jin of eggs has risen to about 3.13 yuan. Although the number of laying hens in production remains high, the worst period may have passed. Prices are expected to rise moderately, but high inventory levels will limit the upside; it is recommended to sell on rallies.