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The Middle East war rewrites the Bank of England's script, traders bet on three rate hikes this year.

The Middle East war rewrites the Bank of England's script, traders bet on three rate hikes this year.

金十金十2026/03/19 12:46
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Golden Ten Data reported on March 19 that after a member of the Bank of England stated they were ready to "take action" to address any inflation surge that might be triggered by the Middle East conflict, traders sold off UK government bonds, with the two-year gilt yield rising more than 30 basis points to 4.41%. Meanwhile, traders increased their bets on a Bank of England rate hike. The swap market currently expects the bank to raise rates by nearly 70 basis points by the end of the year, which means about three 25-basis-point hikes, with the first expected next month. In the latest rate decision, all nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee unanimously voted to keep rates unchanged at 3.75%. Governor Bailey warned that policy must "address the risk of a more lasting impact of the Middle East situation on UK CPI inflation." This marks a dramatic shift in expectations. Less than three weeks ago, due to a weak labor market, the market was highly confident that the Bank of England would cut rates today.
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