Bitunix Analyst: Policy Anchor Loosens, Exchange Rate and Energy Resonance Tighten Liquidity, BTC Retests Support Zone

BlockBeats News, March 19, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, the dot plot still points to only one rate cut this year, and only Milan cast a dissenting vote, indicating internal disagreements are converging. However, the Middle East situation has been explicitly included as a source of uncertainty, shifting the policy framework from "endogenous inflation and employment" to "external shocks dominate." The market has begun to reprice the interest rate path, forming a vague range of "converging rate cut expectations + rising tail risk of rate hikes."

The Bank of Japan also remained on hold, with the yen approaching the intervention threshold of 160. The US dollar maintains its strength due to the resonance of interest rate expectations and safe-haven demand. Japanese stocks and bonds are under pressure, funds continue to flow back to the US dollar and the energy chain, and "exchange rate pressure + rising oil prices" are simultaneously contracting global liquidity.

Rising oil prices are pushing up inflation expectations, putting the Federal Reserve in a stagflation dilemma: rate cuts will strengthen inflation, while rate hikes will suppress the economy. As a result, the market has seen a misalignment in probability structure—at one point, the probability of a rate hike was higher than a rate cut, representing risk premium repricing, with policy uncertainty becoming the dominant variable.

Back to the crypto market, BTC quickly retreated after testing liquidity above $74,000. The short liquidity between $74,000–$76,500 has not been fully released; the structural watershed between $71,000–$72,000 has been breached; passive long positions appeared between $69,000–$70,000; below, $67,500 is the previous accumulation and potential secondary scan area. The current pullback is essentially a rebalancing after high-level liquidity release, with the key being whether the $69,000 area can shift from "passive absorption → active absorption."

Overall, the market is shifting from "single rate cut trade" to a triple disturbance structure of "policy, energy, exchange rate." BTC has entered a stage of liquidity redistribution within the range, with the short-term core not being direction, but which side of the liquidation chain is triggered and expanded first.