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UBS warns: If the Middle East conflict is prolonged and there is no productivity improvement, global stock markets could plunge by 30%

UBS warns: If the Middle East conflict is prolonged and there is no productivity improvement, global stock markets could plunge by 30%

格隆汇格隆汇2026/03/19 02:04
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Golden Ten Data March 19|UBS strategist Andrew Garthwaite stated that global stock markets may continue to consolidate in the short term, as the market is dealing with high uncertainty and a wide range of potential macroeconomic outcomes.UBS has set the 2026 target for the MSCI Global Market Index at 1100 points, slightly lower than the previous estimate of 1130 points. The new forecast, compared to the current level of 1015.6 points, indicates moderate upside potential, but the process will remain volatile. The bank emphasized that the dispersion of potential outcomes is particularly large: in a more optimistic scenario, a rapid resolution of the Middle East conflict combined with stronger productivity growth driven by AI could push the index's fair value up to 1280 points;If the conflict lasts for three months or longer and there is no productivity improvement, the fair value could fall to 700 points, which would mean a decline of about 30% from the current level. In the long term, UBS continues to see support from structural drivers, especially the potential for generative AI to boost productivity growth starting from 2028. At the same time, the bank pointed out that although the conditions for a market bubble are already in place, the current dynamics still resemble a consolidation phase rather than a full-scale decline.
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