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CITIC Securities: After Waller becomes Federal Reserve Chairman, there will be one rate cut in the second half of the year.

CITIC Securities: After Waller becomes Federal Reserve Chairman, there will be one rate cut in the second half of the year.

金十金十2026/03/19 00:29
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Golden Ten Data reported on March 19 that CITIC Securities pointed out that the Federal Reserve maintained its policy rate unchanged at the March 2026 FOMC meeting, in line with market expectations. The latest dot plot shows that the median target rate for this year is 3.4%, consistent with December 2025, while this year's inflation forecast has been raised, the economic growth forecast has been slightly increased, and the unemployment rate forecast remains unchanged. As expected, Powell did not comment on the situation in Iran or oil prices, and it is noteworthy that his confidence in tariff-driven inflation decline has further weakened compared to January. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates in April, and after Waller takes over as chair, the baseline scenario is for one 25bps rate cut in the second half of the year.
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