Economist: The Federal Reserve's forecasts are overly optimistic and may repeat the old mistake of "overestimating inflation and underestimating drag"
Odaily reported that Brian Jacobsen, Chief Economist at Annex Wealth Management, stated that the real "drama" lies in the economic forecast summary. They are merely guessing what will happen to oil prices, but expect inflation to rise by 0.3 percentage points, with no substantial drag on growth. This prediction may be overly optimistic. It is similar to how they previously overestimated the impact of tariffs on inflation while underestimating the drag on economic growth. The year 2026 could be like the past two years, with shocks occurring, and they end up surprised, then cut interest rates in September.
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On October 9, Morningstar predicted that the revenue of Australian oil and gas producer Woodside Energy (WDS.AX) will grow by over 30% by 2030, outpacing any of its international peers. Woodside Energy’s share price dropped by 0.6% on the day to 32.12 AUD, after surging 2.6% in the previous trading session. The stock is poised to end a three-week losing streak, with oil prices rising due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, and is set for a 2.8% weekly gain O/R. Morningstar expects Woodside’s revenue to increase as major new projects come online, and forecasts free cash flow to exceed 7 billion USD after 2030, reflecting a 300% rise from 2025. The report added that market sentiment remains bearish, with the current share price below its estimated fair value of 44.00 AUD. Year-to-date, Woodside’s share price has risen 36.2%, while Santos shares are up 41.3%. (For the convenience of non-English speakers, Reuters has automated the translation of its reports into several languages. Since automated translations may be inaccurate or lack required context, Reuters does not guarantee the accuracy of automated translation texts and provides them solely for the convenience of readers. Reuters accepts no liability for any loss or damage arising from your use of automated translation functions.)
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