Safe-haven fails as gold plunges 3%, "inflation trade" is strangling the "war trade"

汇通财经2026/03/18 13:48

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⑴ As Iran threatens to retaliate for attacks on its energy facilities and designates the oil facilities of three Middle Eastern countries as legitimate targets, market tensions have risen sharply. ⑵ However, the market response has shown a rare divergence: oil prices surged, with Brent crude briefly breaking above $105 per barrel; meanwhile, precious metals faced heavy sell-offs, with spot gold plunging over 3% on Wednesday to a more than one-month low, and spot silver dropping more than 4% at one point, hitting its lowest level in a month. ⑶ David Meger, Director of Metals Trading at High Ridge Futures, pointed out that the ongoing escalation of geopolitical conflicts is driving up energy prices, which is “adding fuel to the fire” of inflation and, in turn, strengthening expectations that the Federal Reserve may not be able to cut interest rates, keeping non-yielding gold under continued pressure. ⑷ He emphasized that the current market is not lacking in safe-haven demand, but the pressure from the repricing of inflation expectations has temporarily overshadowed gold’s safe-haven appeal. ⑸ The Iran conflict has now lasted nearly three weeks with little sign of easing, and benchmark Brent crude futures remain above $100 per barrel. As rising energy costs gradually spread to broader areas of the economy, inflationary pressures are becoming the core logic dominating asset pricing.

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On October 9, Morningstar predicted that the revenue of Australian oil and gas producer Woodside Energy (WDS.AX) will grow by over 30% by 2030, outpacing any of its international peers. Woodside Energy’s share price dropped by 0.6% on the day to 32.12 AUD, after surging 2.6% in the previous trading session. The stock is poised to end a three-week losing streak, with oil prices rising due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, and is set for a 2.8% weekly gain O/R. Morningstar expects Woodside’s revenue to increase as major new projects come online, and forecasts free cash flow to exceed 7 billion USD after 2030, reflecting a 300% rise from 2025. The report added that market sentiment remains bearish, with the current share price below its estimated fair value of 44.00 AUD. Year-to-date, Woodside’s share price has risen 36.2%, while Santos shares are up 41.3%. (For the convenience of non-English speakers, Reuters has automated the translation of its reports into several languages. Since automated translations may be inaccurate or lack required context, Reuters does not guarantee the accuracy of automated translation texts and provides them solely for the convenience of readers. Reuters accepts no liability for any loss or damage arising from your use of automated translation functions.)

路透社•2026/10/09 02:16

Star analyst Ives: Bullish on Apple (AAPL.US) up to $400, AI strategy may increase valuation by $75 per share

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智通财经•2026/10/09 02:01