Caixin Futures Energy and Chemical Sector Review: Crude Oil Fluctuates at High Levels, Methanol Remains Strong and Volatile

⑴ Crude Oil: Iran's new leader made a tough statement, declaring that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed. The Iranian president confirmed Larijani's death, and it is reported that attacks on Middle Eastern energy facilities will be intensified. The US side may also attack Iran's oil export ports. Currently, the US and Iran are still in a standoff, with no signs of easing tensions. The energy and chemical sector remains at high levels with high volatility. ⑵ Fuel Oil: The range of attacks on Middle Eastern infrastructure and oil facilities has expanded, and oil-producing countries are cutting production. Domestic dependence on high-sulfur fuel oil imports is significant, with Iranian fuel oil accounting for 20% of domestic imports. With the Strait of Hormuz not open, the supply gap is difficult to recover in the short term, and prices are fluctuating strongly at high levels. ⑶ Glass: The North China market remains stable, manufacturers' shipments are acceptable, and downstream buyers are purchasing as needed. Last week, inventory decreased by 4.76% compared to the previous week, one production line was ignited, and two production lines were shut down. The current daily industry output is 145,800 tons. Supply remains low, combined with peak season expectations, and prices are expected to fluctuate widely. ⑷ Soda Ash: The market trend is stabilizing, with light trading activity. Enterprises' operations are stable, supply remains at a high level, and capacity utilization rate is 85.79%. Inventory decreased by 28,200 tons compared to last Thursday. Although energy costs provide some support, mid-term supply remains high, so the driving force is weak. The market is expected to fluctuate within a wide and weak range. ⑸ Caustic Soda: Inventory in the Zibo market is low, and prices have risen slightly; prices in the southern Shandong market have been raised due to order support. Tight raw material supply has led related companies to reduce production, and overseas plant shutdowns are favorable for exports. There is a significant premium in the futures market; if geopolitical tensions ease, volatility will increase significantly, and fluctuations are expected to intensify. ⑹ Methanol: The domestic market has generally risen, with Taicang spot prices rising to 2,925 yuan/ton, futures showing strong fluctuations, and a significant increase in open interest. Imported supplies have not arrived in time, and port inventories decreased by 51,100 tons this week. Geopolitical conflicts have caused import delays and reductions, resulting in a relatively strong and volatile methanol market.