Caixin Futures Agricultural Products Overview: Oils Open High and Fall, Meal Products Strengthened by Cost Support

汇通财经2026/03/18 12:37

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⑴ Palm Oil/Soybean Oil: Overnight international oil prices and CBOT soybean oil rebounded, driving domestic oils to open higher. However, after surging in the early session, prices fell alongside crude oil, showing a unilateral downward trend with external strength and internal weakness. High domestic inventories and weak basis are exerting significant pressure, resulting in insufficient momentum for a rebound in the market. In the spot market, 24-degree palm oil in Guangdong fell by 160 yuan to 9,690 yuan/ton, while soybean oil rose by 20 yuan to 8,950 yuan/ton.⑵ Soybean Meal: The surge in crude oil has strengthened vegetable oils, thereby pushing up the cost of imported soybeans, which is the main logic behind the strength in soybean meal. In addition, the hedging demand for agricultural products should not be ignored. Recently, domestic soybean imports have declined significantly, coupled with news of customs clearance delays, which has intensified short-term supply tightness and further pushed up meal prices. It is recommended to go long on dips.⑶ Corn: The main reason for the strong price performance is that inventories at northern ports remain low year-on-year, but downstream enterprise losses and warmer weather, which is unfavorable for storage, limit the potential for further short-term increases. Currently, corn prices are relatively high; it is recommended to go long on dips after pullbacks, and pay attention to grain sales progress and national reserve auction information.⑷ Live Hogs: Although the sow inventory has declined month-on-month, the absolute value is still higher than the normal holding level. Coupled with excellent production efficiency, medium-term supply pressure remains. In the short term, the pre-holiday secondary fattening has not been fully digested, slaughter volume is gradually recovering, and post-holiday demand remains weak, causing spot prices to continue to weaken. It is recommended to go short on rallies and monitor changes in slaughter volume.⑸ Eggs: Post-holiday buying and selling is recovering slowly, and logistics have not fully resumed, with sales mainly within production areas. Supply remains large in February and March, and terminal demand is in the off-season. It is recommended to go short on rallies and pay attention to the restocking pace of traders.

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