The Fed's March Rate Hike Probability Remains at 100%

According to monitoring, the probability on the Polymarket prediction market of whether the "Federal Reserve will maintain the interest rate after the March 2026 meeting" has reached 100%.

The Federal Open Market Committee meeting took place on March 17th to 18th. The final interest rate decision will be officially announced at 2:00 AM (UTC+8) on March 19th, and Fed Chair Powell will hold a press conference half an hour after the decision is announced.

The recent US-Iran conflict has caused a sharp surge in global oil prices, triggering a new round of input inflation concerns. Against this backdrop, despite recent signs of weakness in the US labor market, faced with inflationary pressures from the energy supply shock, the Fed cannot easily cut interest rates to stimulate the economy.

Furthermore, some analysts believe that the Fed will adopt a "hawkish pause" strategy at this meeting. Maintaining the current federal funds rate range of 3.50% to 3.75% unchanged until the inflation trend and the ultimate impact of the Middle East conflict on the real economy become clear is the most prudent option to avoid exacerbating inflation expectations.

Due to the recent investigation by the US Department of Justice into Powell and the Senate's resistance to new personnel nominations, the Fed is facing significant political pressure and a personnel deadlock. Under this extreme external pressure, the decision-making level is more inclined to maintain the status quo and independence of monetary policy, avoiding making rate adjustments at this time that could spark even greater controversy.
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