Oil price surge and foreign capital outflow hit India, rupee falls to a record low

汇通财经2026/03/18 09:44

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⑴ On Wednesday, the Indian rupee fell to a historic low of 92.6225 against the US dollar, surpassing the previous low of 92.4750 set last week. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to push up oil prices, posing macroeconomic risks to Asia's third-largest economy and triggering capital outflows. ⑵ Since the outbreak of the Iran war, the rupee has depreciated by about 1.5%. Since March, foreign portfolio investors have withdrawn nearly $8 billion from India's local stock market, resulting in significant capital outflow pressure. ⑶ Brent crude oil prices have surged by about 40% since the onset of the war. Persistently high oil prices will widen India's current account deficit and push up inflation, exposing its currency to greater risk compared to many peer countries. ⑷ Over 80% of India's energy demand relies on imports. The Middle East conflict may also threaten remittances from overseas expatriates and damage exports to the Middle East, further exacerbating external balance of payments pressures. ⑸ Traders indicated that the main reason the rupee's decline has not accelerated further is due to frequent interventions by the central bank, including on Wednesday. The Reserve Bank of India's market operations have become the last line of defense against a rapid depreciation of the exchange rate.

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