Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD gains to near $80.00, but holds mildly bearish near-term bias

Silver price (XAG/USD) holds positive ground near $79.90 during the early European session on Wednesday. Escalating tensions in the Middle East push demand toward safe-haven assets like silver.

The war has entered its third week with around 2,000 reported deaths. Iranian security chief Ali Larijani was killed in Israeli airstrikes, and Iranian army chief Amir Hatami vowed to launch a “decisive and regrettable” retaliation for the killing of a senior official.

A spike in oil prices above $100 per barrel increases global market uncertainty and adds inflation concerns. Traders scaled back their bets on US interest rate cuts, which lifted the US Dollar (USD) and weighed on the USD-denominated commodity price.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision will take center stage later on Wednesday, with no change in rates expected. Analysts note that traders will closely monitor the outcome of the Fed’s policy meeting for clearer signals on the future policy stance and the trajectory of precious metal prices, especially against the backdrop of persistent geopolitical tensions and fluctuating energy markets.

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, the near-term bias of XAG/USD is mildly bearish as price retreats from the recent peak and holds just above the rising 100-day EMA near $74.50, which now acts as the last significant dynamic support within a broader uptrend. Daily closes have slipped back inside the Bollinger envelope after rejecting the upper band in the $90.00 area, signaling that upside momentum has faded and volatility is normalizing. The RSI around 44 remains below the 50 midline, confirming soft downside pressure rather than an outright trend reversal.

Immediate support emerges at $79.00, with a decisive break exposing the recent swing low at $73.50 ahead of the 100-day EMA clustered near $74.50, where buyers would be expected to defend the broader bullish structure. On the topside, initial resistance appears at $83.00, followed by the mid-$80.00s in line with the Bollinger middle band slope, while a recovery above $88.00 would be needed to re-open a test of the $90.00 band cap and negate the current corrective tone.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)