Analyst: The overheating phenomenon in the crypto market has been completely eliminated, but selling pressure has not yet been exhausted.
BlockBeats news, on March 18, on-chain data analyst Axel released the latest research report, pointing out that the overheating phenomenon in the bitcoin market has been completely eliminated, but selling pressure has not eased, and the market has not yet shown a clear reversal signal.
The report shows that the MVRV Z-Score, which measures bitcoin valuation overheating, has dropped 74% from the cycle high of 2.603 in October 2025 to 0.674, far below the average (1.72) and the first standard deviation track (3.55), confirming that the valuation bubble has been completely cleared. The current range of 0.5-1.0 corresponds to a cycle-neutral zone, with the market value only moderately exceeding the realized market value.
However, the aSOPR (7-day moving average), which reflects the profitability of market participants, has been below 1.0 for 55 consecutive trading days, with the latest value at 0.9926, indicating that the market is still selling at a loss. Since the last time it stood above the 1.0 mark on January 21, 2026, this indicator has never returned to the profitable selling zone.
Axel emphasized that 1.0 is the key dividing line between selling at a loss and selling at a profit. Before aSOPR can remain steadily above 1.0 for several consecutive trading days, any rebound may face selling pressure. The key issue in the current market is not whether bitcoin is cheap, but whether selling pressure has been exhausted; at least for now, the answer is still negative.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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