Analyst: Middle East conflict drives up coal prices, but prices will quickly fall after tensions ease

Golden Ten Data reported on March 18 that due to the decline in natural gas supply caused by the Iran conflict, some natural gas users have switched to coal, driving up coal prices. However, whether coal prices can remain strong after the conflict ends remains uncertain. Morgans pointed out that before the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran, the benchmark price of thermal coal exported from Newcastle Port, Australia, was $118 per ton, and has since risen to $138 per ton. Analyst Chris Creech stated: "During the previous round of conflict, which lasted 12 days in June 2025, crude oil prices quickly returned to pre-conflict levels after the conflict ended. If the Strait of Hormuz reopens in the short term and Qatar resumes liquefied natural gas production, coal prices are expected to experience a similar rapid decline." Morgans forecasts that coal prices in the second half of fiscal year 2026 will be $115 per ton, with a long-term assumption of maintaining $120 per ton from fiscal year 2027 onwards.