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Caixin Futures Nonferrous Metals and New Energy Analysis: Volatile Pattern Amid Macro Game and Supply-Demand Divergence

Caixin Futures Nonferrous Metals and New Energy Analysis: Volatile Pattern Amid Macro Game and Supply-Demand Divergence

汇通财经汇通财经2026/03/17 12:58
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⑴ Shanghai Copper: The main contract fluctuates within the 99,000-100,600 yuan/ton range. The weakening US Dollar Index provides support for copper prices. On the supply side, inventories remain high but warehouse receipts are decreasing, while on the demand side, downstream rigid demand is accelerating. The market has fully priced in the Fed's hawkish path, with attention focused on the March FOMC meeting statements. ⑵ Shanghai Aluminum: Macroeconomic factors are bearish, but fundamentals offer support. The Mozal aluminum plant overseas, with an annual capacity of about 580,000 tons, has entered maintenance due to power issues, strengthening supply contraction expectations. Strategically, buying on dips is advisable. ⑶ Shanghai Zinc: Running with a weak bias amid fluctuations. The market continues to trade on the logic of a "strong dollar + cooling rate cut expectations," putting pressure on prices. Social inventories are increasing again as consumption recovers slowly, and short-term fluctuations are expected to dominate. ⑷ Precious Metals: Fluctuating within a range. The US Dollar Index is weakening, and the gold-silver ratio continues to rise, indicating that silver's industrial attributes are being dragged down. On the macro level, geopolitical risks and inflation expectations are in a tug-of-war. Short-term performance is expected to be weak, but medium- and long-term support remains. ⑸ Lithium Carbonate: Futures opened high and then moved lower, closing at 155,180 yuan. The market shows a converging triangle pattern, with resistance gradually moving downward and support moving upward. Spot battery-grade lithium carbonate rose to 149,650 yuan/ton, and futures still maintain a premium structure. Downstream purchasing is becoming more rational, and the slower destocking pace in March is putting pressure on prices.
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