Bets on Polymarket generate threats and raise regulatory alerts.

• Polymarket pressures journalist for geopolitical bets.
• Prediction markets raise risk of manipulation.
• Gambling regulation is growing in the US.

An incident involving betting on prediction markets has raised new questions about the influence of these contracts on journalistic coverage. Military correspondent Emanuel Fabian reported receiving threats after publishing information about an Iranian attack on Israeli territory.

De The journalist was pressured by participants on the Polymarket platform to alter details of his report. The contract under analysis assessed whether Iran would launch a direct attack against Israel on a specific date, with over $14 million in bets.

The controversy began when Fabian reported that an Iranian missile had hit an open area near the city of Beit Shemesh. After the publication, some bettors began demanding that he include that the projectile had been intercepted, which could directly impact the outcome of the contract.

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The journalist reported receiving numerous messages via email, social media, and messaging apps, including explicit threats. In one of them, an individual stated that he would "finish him off" if the text was not modified. Despite the pressure, Fabian maintained the original version, based on data from rescue teams and military sources.

Faced with the situation, he filed a police report and forwarded the messages to the authorities. The case reinforces concerns about possible attempts at manipulation in markets involving geopolitical events and real-time decisions.

In recent months, platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have experienced rapid growth, with billions of dollars in contracts linked to elections, public policy, and international conflicts. This growth has attracted the attention of regulators in the United States.

Senator Adam Schiff and Representative Mike Levin introduced the "Death Bets Act," a proposal that seeks to prohibit betting related to wars, assassinations, and fatalities. "Betting on wars and deaths should be illegal," Levin said when announcing the bill.

Other initiatives in Congress are also discussing limiting contracts linked to government actions. Meanwhile, on-chain analyses have indicated suspicious activity in bets placed before recent military events.

Despite regulatory pressure, trading volume remains high. The episode involving Fabian highlights how prediction markets can directly impact the flow of information and pose challenges for journalists and participants in this sector.