Mysterious trader bets that the Federal Reserve will find it difficult to cut interest rates, earning about $10 million in SOFR options trading
BlockBeats News, March 17 — A short-term interest rate options trade betting that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates for an extended period recently earned about $10 million in profits and was closed out before the Fed's policy meeting. The trade was established in January this year, linked to options related to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), with the core bet being that U.S. interest rates by mid-2028 would be higher than the market's consensus expectations at that time.
According to open interest data released by CME Group, relevant options saw selling activity last Friday, indicating that the position was recently closed for profit. As such interest rate derivatives trades are typically conducted anonymously, the specific trading institution or individual cannot be confirmed at this time.
Market analysis suggests that this trade was positioned before the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East. With crude oil prices recently surging to their highest levels since 2022, concerns about inflation have intensified, prompting traders to lower their expectations for Fed rate cuts, pushing SOFR futures lower and driving up the price of corresponding put options, turning the position profitable.
Currently, the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by only about 25 basis points by the end of this year, far below the expectation of at least two rate cuts priced in at the end of February. Meanwhile, forward rate expectations have also been raised; for example, the SOFR futures rate for contracts expiring in June 2028 has risen by about 30 basis points since early March.
This position was closed ahead of this week's Federal Reserve rate decision. The market generally expects no change in policy rates at this meeting, but investors will focus on Jerome Powell's press conference to gauge how the Fed will balance inflationary pressures from rising oil prices with signs of a weakening labor market.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
Updated Version 4 - SpaceX Targets U.S. Wireless Operators Through Spectrum Acquisition
The U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has approved Starlink Mobile Gen2's application to launch 15,000 satellites. Low-frequency radio waves can expand coverage and enhance signal penetration through walls and tree canopies, improving indoor reception. The share prices of T-Mobile, Verizon, and AT&T each fell by nearly 7% in after-hours trading. On October 8, Reuters reported that SpaceX reached an agreement on Thursday to acquire a nationwide portfolio of low-frequency spectrum, enabling Elon Musk's satellite company to directly challenge giant traditional wireless carriers across the United States from orbit. While Starlink Mobile’s existing global 2 GHz mid-band spectrum offers high bandwidth capacity, the new spectrum will allow signal penetration through obstacles. Financial terms of the deal were not disclosed. Low-frequency bands are favored for their longer transmission ranges and ability to penetrate dense structures like walls and tree cover—addressing a major technical challenge previously faced by satellite-based mobile networks. By combining nationwide low-frequency radio coverage with high-frequency space transmission, SpaceX is positioning Starlink Mobile to entirely bypass traditional cell towers, challenging the wireless oligopoly both in wide-area coverage and indoor signal reliability. This deal also increases competitive pressure on traditional operators, shifting direct-to-device satellite technology from a supplementary feature for remote dead spots to a comprehensive commercial rival to terrestrial cellular networks. The share prices of T-Mobile US, Verizon, and AT&T each dropped nearly 7% in after-hours trading. “Incumbent wireless carriers have been publicly skeptical, arguing that SpaceX’s network quality could not match theirs,” said analysts at William Blair. “We expect SpaceX to launch very attractive bundled packages of Starlink broadband with Starlink Mobile, and the company may include Grok in these bundles.” The deal involves acquiring 100% of a nationwide 800 MHz spectrum portfolio from private equity firm Grain Management, pending regulatory approval from the FCC. Earlier this year, Grain had acquired this spectrum from T-Mobile. Crucially, most existing, unmodified mobile phones already support the 800 MHz band, so consumers will not need to purchase special satellite phones. This week, the FCC also approved Starlink Mobile’s application for its second-generation satellite constellation, authorizing SpaceX to launch 15,000 satellites worldwide optimized for the 2 GHz band. This new satellite array will operate in very low Earth orbit, providing regular smartphones with higher bandwidth and low-latency connections.
BRIEF-Veea Regains Full Compliance With Nasdaq Continued Listing Requirements
Oct 8 (Reuters) - Veea Inc VEEA.O: VEEA REGAINS FULL COMPLIANCE WITH NASDAQ CONTINUED LISTING REQUIREMENTS Source text: ID:nGNX9LhSKf Further company coverage: VEEA.O ((Reuters.Briefs@thomsonreuters.com;))
Exclusive Report – Sources say Refresco is planning an initial public offering (IPO) with a valuation of over 10 billions dollars.
According to sources, several banks have been competing for IPO underwriting business in recent weeks. The sources said the potential listing could take place in either the United States or Europe. KKR acquired Refresco for approximately $8 billion in 2022. Reuters New York, October 8 – According to informed sources, Netherlands-based Refresco and its parent company KKR have recently heard pitches from several investment banks regarding their potential roles in the IPO of Refresco, one of the world's largest independent beverage manufacturers. Sources, speaking anonymously, revealed that Refresco is exploring listing plans, possibly in either the US or Europe, and that regardless of the market, the company’s valuation could surpass $10 billion. They cautioned that the plans are at a preliminary stage and may change. KKR, an investment firm, acquired the company in 2022 for about $8 billion through its global infrastructure strategy, which focuses on investing in critical infrastructure assets. Other investments under this strategy include utilities, energy, and telecommunications service companies. Both Refresco and KKR declined to comment. Founded in 1999 and headquartered in Rotterdam, Netherlands, Refresco partners with retailers such as Walmart and Aldi to produce private label beverage products, and also collaborates with branded beverage companies like Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, and Monster Beverage. Refresco claims to be the world’s largest independent beverage manufacturer, providing production, bottling, warehousing, logistics, and distribution services to partners. The company operates 85 production sites across North America, Europe, and Australia. According to its annual report, the company achieved nearly $7 billion in revenue and about $930 million in adjusted EBITDA in 2025. Sources noted that although Coca-Cola Consolidated mainly collaborates with Coca-Cola, this North Carolina-based beverage manufacturer could still be a relevant comparable for Refresco. According to data provider LSEG, that company's market capitalization is around $12.5 billion, and its EBITDA multiple is close to 12 times. Dealogic data show that the US IPO market had a strong start this year, with traditional IPO funding approaching $140 billion so far, making 2026 likely to approach the record levels seen in 2021. However, market volatility, rising bond yields, rate hike concerns, and increasing questions over AI spending and valuations are threatening the once-expected bumper autumn IPO season. Several companies, including smart ring maker Oura, have postponed planned listings in recent weeks. Nevertheless, IPO advisors and investors say companies continue to hold pitches with investment banks to vie for underwriting spots—known as “beauty contests.” They are also continuing informal meetings with investors and other preparations to allow them to move quickly when market conditions improve. (For the convenience of non-English speakers, Reuters automatically translates its reports into various languages. Reuters does not guarantee the accuracy of automated translations, and such translations are provided solely for reader convenience. Reuters accepts no liability for any damage or loss caused by use of the automated translation function.)
Raydium crypto surges 14% as negative funding raises short squeeze prospects
Crypto prices
More
