Geopolitical strategist presents a "war formula": Iran's pain threshold determines the duration of the conflict, with a 60% probability of ending within two weeks.

汇通财经2026/03/17 01:31

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1. Marco Papic, Chief Geopolitical and Macro Strategist at BCA Research, proposed a "formula" for calculating the duration of the Iran war: subtract the scale and intensity of US punitive bombing and the joint response of other regions of the world from Iran's pain threshold, and what remains is the duration of the war. He predicts a 60% probability that the conflict will end in about two weeks.2. Papic believes that Iran's pain threshold is lower than what the market and commentators imagine. The "death, fire, and fury" unleashed by the US in a punitive manner will ultimately force Tehran to seek peace. He believes Iran's ability to retaliate with drones is limited, and people underestimate the destructive power of the US B-52 bombers.3. The Strait of Hormuz is expected to be forcibly opened, not only because of the US "blitzkrieg," but also due to the coordinated response from other regions of the world. Papic pointed out that India has ensured that its two oil tankers pass through the strait without interference, and France, Italy, and Pakistan are also negotiating with Tehran or planning escorts. During the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, multinational joint navies worked together to clear mines and open the strait.4. Iran needs to weigh at some point: blocking the strait to establish deterrence is in its interest, but other regions of the world cannot tolerate one-fifth of global oil supply being restricted, and may jointly increase punitive measures against Iran. Papic recommends trades that could benefit from prolonged conflict, including Brent crude oil futures, US oil equipment ETFs, and tanker shipping.5. Nevertheless, public comments made by officials from Germany, Italy, and the UK on Monday indicate a lukewarm response to Trump's call for military support. Crude oil futures fluctuated in the third week of the war, with WTI trading between $95 and $102, and the retreat in oil prices drove US stock index futures higher.

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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