Dow Jones Industrial Average rebounds as Crude Oil prices retreat

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) climbed around 1.2% on Monday, reclaiming ground above 47,000 after Friday's subdued close near 46,500. The S&P 500 rose over 1%, recovering back toward the 6,700 level, while the Nasdaq Composite gained more than 1.2%, closing near 22,400. Monday's broad advance broke a three-week losing streak for all three major US indices, driven by a combination of easing geopolitical risk around the Iran conflict, falling Oil prices, and a fresh wave of enthusiasm for artificial intelligence heading into Nvidia's flagship developer conference.

Strait of Hormuz fears ease, Oil falls sharply

The primary catalyst for Monday's recovery was a significant retreat in Crude Oil prices after reports over the weekend suggested that selected tankers carrying liquified petroleum gas had been permitted to cross the Strait of Hormuz. The development indicated that, despite escalating rhetoric between Iran, Israel, and the US, Tehran is maintaining a degree of leniency toward energy exports to allied nations. West Texas Intermediate crude fell nearly 4% to around $95 per barrel, pulling back from the elevated levels that had stoked inflation fears throughout last week. Brent crude, which had settled above $100 per barrel for the first time since August 2022 on Friday, also declined sharply. The pullback in Oil eased pressure on consumer-facing sectors and helped yields retreat across the Treasury curve, with the 10-year yield dipping to around 4.22%, supporting equity valuations broadly.

Tech surges on Nvidia GTC conference

Technology and semiconductor stocks were among the session's strongest performers, buoyed by the opening of Nvidia's (NVDA) annual GTC Artificial Intelligence Conference in San Jose, California. Nvidia rose around 2.4%, as CEO Jensen Huang's keynote drew widespread attention from institutional investors and developers tracking advances in accelerated computing. The optimism spilled across the broader chip space, with Micron (MU) jumping over 5% ahead of its quarterly earnings report due Wednesday and Intel (INTC) surging around 6%, while Seagate (STX) added nearly 6%. Within the Dow itself, Caterpillar (CAT) and Goldman Sachs (GS) were also among the leading gainers, each rising around 2%, as the broader retreat in yields supported economically sensitive and financial stocks. The CBOE Volatility Index fell over 7%, dropping back toward 25, signalling a meaningful improvement in near-term market sentiment.

Meta rises on AI-driven workforce restructuring reports

Meta (META) was a notable outperformer, jumping close to 3% after a Friday report indicated the company is considering laying off approximately 20% of its global workforce, with efficiency gains from artificial intelligence cited as a key driver behind the potential headcount reduction. Investors interpreted the news as a positive for Meta's cost structure and margins, reinforcing the broader market narrative that AI adoption is accelerating productivity gains across major technology companies. The move also helped lift sentiment for other large-cap technology names closely associated with AI infrastructure spending.

FOMC meeting in focus as rate cut timeline shifts further out

With the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) convening Tuesday for a two-day policy meeting, markets are in a holding pattern ahead of Wednesday's rate decision and the quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), including the updated dot plot. The CME FedWatch Tool shows a roughly 92%–94% probability that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, a near-certainty given stubborn inflation and the geopolitical backdrop. The SEP update is arguably the more consequential element, as it will offer the first official Fed view that incorporates the economic impact of the Iran conflict, surging Oil prices, and President Trump's 15% global tariffs.

Rate cut expectations have shifted materially over recent weeks: traders have moved the probability of a first cut from June to December, while Goldman Sachs now forecasts cuts in September and December, and Barclays has pared its projection to a single reduction in September. The challenging cross-current leaves the Fed's forward guidance on Wednesday as the key market event of the week. Chair Powell's press conference is scheduled for 19:30 GMT on Wednesday, March 18.

Dow Jones daily chart