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Rising oil prices alter rate cut expectations, a Federal Reserve options bet earns $10 million profit

Rising oil prices alter rate cut expectations, a Federal Reserve options bet earns $10 million profit

金十金十2026/03/16 14:40
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Golden Ten Data reported on March 16 that this month’s sharp rise in oil prices and the market’s lowered expectations for the Federal Reserve’s easing policies have resulted in a $10 million profit from an options trade targeting short-term interest rates. This bet was placed in January in the form of options linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate, which is closely related to the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory. Position data released by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group on Monday, covering Friday’s trading, indicates that the selling of these options at the end of last week was consistent with profit-taking on this position. This bet existed even before the outbreak of war in the Middle East, and it suggested that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate level in mid-2028 would be higher than the generally expected level in January. Last week, the bet turned profitable because the conflict pushed crude oil prices to their highest levels since 2022, sparking concerns about inflation and prompting traders to expect the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates for a longer period.
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