USD: Relationship with Oil and Stocks Changes – BNY

101 finance2026/03/16 14:06

By:101 finance

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Shifting Dynamics Between the Dollar, Oil, and Equities

Bob Savage, who leads Markets Macro Strategy at BNY, highlights a significant shift in the usual relationships among the US Dollar, oil prices, and stock markets. As investors respond to ongoing tensions in Iran and upcoming central bank meetings, traditional market patterns appear to be changing. Savage notes that many are preparing for a potential market bottom as the quarter draws to a close, and points out that the oil-to-gold ratio has emerged as a crucial indicator for the Dollar, especially as market leverage decreases.

Evolving Connections Between the Dollar and Risk Assets

According to Savage, investors are noticing a key divergence in correlations as they enter a week filled with central bank decisions and St. Patrick’s Day festivities. The relationship between the Dollar and oil, as well as between the Dollar and equities, is showing new patterns.

He suggests that market participants may be pausing to assess how long the current conflict will last, or they could be positioning themselves for a rebound as the quarter ends.

Savage emphasizes that the oil-to-gold ratio is now a central metric to watch. After reaching a high of 86 barrels of oil per ounce of gold, this ratio has dropped below 50. Its movement could have important implications for the Dollar as the process of deleveraging continues.

(This article was produced with the assistance of artificial intelligence and subsequently reviewed by an editor.)

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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