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Iran war disrupts outlook, Federal Reserve faces dual pressures, hawks and doves set for imminent showdown

Iran war disrupts outlook, Federal Reserve faces dual pressures, hawks and doves set for imminent showdown

Odaily星球日报Odaily星球日报2026/03/16 13:27
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Odaily reported that Federal Reserve officials will hold a meeting this week, and their policy outlook has already been disrupted against the backdrop of the Iran war causing a halt in one-fifth of the global oil supply. The officials will discuss whether this conflict is more likely to undermine economic growth, trigger more persistent inflation, or create a complex situation where economic slowdown and rising prices coexist.

Considering that supply shocks during the pandemic led the Federal Reserve to miss its 2% inflation target for five consecutive years, policymakers are more likely to take a cautious approach this week, and may even directly signal a hawkish stance. The current inflation rate is still about 1 percentage point higher than the target and is expected to rise further, especially as oil prices have surged nearly 50% in two weeks and remain at high levels. Officials must also weigh whether this emerging economic shock, which is expected not only to push up prices but also tighten financial conditions, depress asset prices, and increase uncertainty, will become the trigger that breaks economic resilience.

The market expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at this week's policy meeting. Data since the last meeting shows that the basic outlook has hardly changed, and the Federal Reserve is in a leadership transition—Kevin Warsh, nominated by Trump, is expected to eventually be confirmed by the Senate and take over from current chairman Powell after mid-May. Nevertheless, Federal Reserve officials will still submit new economic forecasts, striving to determine whether the future situation requires maintaining tight monetary policy to firmly fight inflation, or cutting interest rates to offset the impact of economic slowdown. (Golden Ten Data)

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