Something unusual is happening across global markets this morning. Stock futures are recovering, Asian indices are ticking higher, and crypto is posting one of its strongest weeks in months.
All of this while an active war between the United States and Iran continues to rattle oil prices and geopolitical nerves worldwide. Here is what is actually driving the moves.
The numbers are extraordinary. Bitcoin is up 11% on the week, reaching $73,000 and briefly touching a 40-day high of $74,300 in a single 30-minute candle that liquidated $113 million in short positions.
Ethereum printed its first green weekly candle after seven consecutive weeks of red, gaining 13% to approach $2,200. The total crypto market cap has added over $320 billion since the US-Iran war began.
During an active war, the asset class historically considered the most volatile in the world added $320 billion while gold fell 5.5%, silver collapsed 13.22%, and the S&P 500 shed 3.85%. The explanation comes down to two things: institutional money and a genuine shift in how Bitcoin behaves under macro stress.
Spot Bitcoin ETF assets under management have grown to $91 billion, creating a structural floor that did not exist during previous crises. Ethereum saw direct confirmation when on-chain data showed ShapeShift founder Erik Voorhees purchased 23,393 ETH, worth $49 million in a single week. Institutions are not selling. They are buying the fear.
After three consecutive losing weeks, US stock futures are attempting to stabilize. Dow Jones futures added 180 points, up 0.39%. Nasdaq-100 futures gained 0.51%, and the Russell 2000 small-cap index led with a 0.76% gain.
The recovery remains fragile. The S&P 500 closed last week at its lowest level of the year, down 1.6%. The Dow and Nasdaq shed approximately 2% and 1.3%, respectively. Two developments are helping sentiment this morning:
- A Wall Street Journal report indicated the US will soon announce a coalition of countries to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, potentially easing the blockade that sent oil to its highest level since 2022. Brent crude is trading at $105.37, up 2.2%. WTI sits at $100.06.
- President Trump added a positive note over the weekend, telling NBC that Iran wants to make a deal, though he said he is not ready yet.
Asian markets are among the stronger performers this morning. Nikkei 225 futures are up 0.77% to 53,362. Hang Seng is gaining 1.03%, one of the best performances across any major index today. China A50 futures are up 0.48%, and Australia’s ASX 200 adds 0.38%.
European markets are more cautious. Germany’s DAX is up 0.25%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 adds 0.48%. The FTSE 100 is essentially flat. France’s CAC 40 is the notable laggard, down 0.91%, reflecting its greater exposure to the oil price shock. India’s Nifty 50 is marginally lower, but Bank Nifty is up 0.48%.
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});Beneath the war noise and price action, the single most important event on the horizon is the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting this Tuesday and Wednesday. The dot plot projections for 2026 rate cuts will either validate or challenge the current rally across every asset class.
The crypto market faces its first major technical resistance at a total market cap of $2.59 trillion. Breaking above it requires Bitcoin to hold $72,000 going into the Fed meeting. A hawkish surprise could push the total cap back toward the $2.44 trillion support level. A neutral or dovish tone likely extends the rally further into the week.
Related: Strategy’s Bitcoin Holdings Approach 740,000 as Analysts Point to Possible 30,000 BTC Purchase
