Bitunix Analyst: Hormuz Strait Shipping Crisis Spills Over to Industrial Metals, Risk-off Sentiment Rises, BTC Reclaims $71,300 Level

BlockBeats News, March 16: The situation in the Middle East continues to escalate, with the US military taking military action against Iranian energy facilities and planning to implement tanker escorts in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran, on the other hand, has indicated that the conflict may persist and has warned that if energy targets are hit, they will respond in kind to relevant US facilities in the region. As maritime risks rise, the transit volume through the Strait of Hormuz has significantly decreased, and market concerns about global energy and supply chain stability have quickly intensified.

The spillover effect of the conflict has spread from the energy market to the industrial metals sector. One of the world's largest individual aluminum smelters has been forced to reduce production by about 20% due to disrupted raw material supplies, putting pressure on the aluminum supply chain in the Gulf region. The International Energy Agency has announced plans to release strategic crude oil reserves into the Asian market to alleviate short-term supply disruptions. If maritime shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues to be restricted, the chain reaction in energy and industrial raw material prices could further raise global inflation expectations.

On the macroeconomic front, the US GDP for the fourth quarter of last year has been revised down to 0.7%, indicating a significant slowdown in economic momentum. However, the January core PCE is still holding at 3.1% year-on-year, and the labor market remains resilient, with job vacancies rising to 6.95 million. The combination of economic slowdown and sticky inflation has fueled discussions about a "stagflationary shock." Amid geopolitical risks and macro uncertainty, global market risk appetite continues to show significant differentiation.

In the cryptocurrency market, BTC has reclaimed the key resistance zone of 71,300, indicating some risk capital is starting to flow back in. However, liquidity remains concentrated in the 72,700 to 74,000 range. If the price continues to hold above 71,300, the short-term market will enter a new liquidity battleground; to the downside, attention should be paid to liquidity support zones around 69,000 and 70,200. Against the backdrop of ongoing high macro geopolitical uncertainty, the short-term structure of the cryptocurrency market is still largely dominated by fund risk appetite and derivatives liquidity distribution.