Asia shares wary, oil volatile as war drags on

By Wayne Cole

SYDNEY, March 16 (Reuters) - Asian markets were in a wary mood on Monday as hostilities in the Gulf kept oil prices elevated, complicating an inflation outlook that should keep most central banks on pause at policy meetings this week, barring one possible hike.

In a possible hint of hope, the Wall Street Journal reported the Trump administration plans to announce as early as this week that multiple countries have agreed to form a coalition to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz.

President Donald Trump told the Financial Times it would be very bad for the future of NATO if the allies did not help.

European Union foreign ministers will discuss on Monday bolstering a small naval mission in the Middle East, though any operation in the Strait would be fraught with risk.

Oil markets were cautious as Brent rose 0.1% to $103.27 a barrel, while U.S. crude fell 0.7% to $97.99. [O/R]

Policymakers in the U.S., UK, Europe, Japan, Australia, Canada, Switzerland and Sweden hold their first full meetings since the start of the war, with energy prices looming over all of them.

"Central bank forecasts will immediately bias towards higher inflation and lower growth," said Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan. "Consistent with this view, we have pushed back or removed action for most central banks that were expected to move in March and April."

"Developments on the ground highlight the potential for further price increases and the likelihood that the risk premium will remain elevated."

Japan’s Nikkei dipped 0.1%, while South Korean stocks added 0.9% after both lost ground last week. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edged up 0.1%.

Regionally, the focus will be on Chinese economic data out on Monday with retail sales seen picking up in February after a dismal start to the year, while growth in industrial output is forecast to stay around 5%.

Top U.S. and Chinese officials are also meeting in Paris to discuss potential deals in agriculture, critical minerals and managed trade for U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping to consider in Beijing.

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S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures bounced 0.4% in choppy trading. While earnings season is over, concerns about AI will be front and centre as Nvidia hosts its GTC conference at Silicon Valley this week, where it is expected to show off the latest advances in chips and AI infrastructure.

The coming energy shock, combined with pressure on fiscal budgets from higher defence spending, saw bond yields globally suffer double-digit increases last week.

Ten-year Treasury yields were at 4.26%, having climbed 32 basis points since the war began, while futures have sharply scaled back the scope for future rate cuts.

The Federal Reserve is considered certain to hold on Wednesday and the chance of an easing by June has come down to just 26%, from 69% a month earlier.

Investor attention will be on the tone of the statement and media conference, and whether the median "dot plot" projections from policymakers remove any further easing for this year.

A cautiously steady outcome is expected at all the other central bank meetings, bar the Reserve Bank of Australia which is seen likely to hike its cash rate a quarter point to 4.1% as it battles resurgent inflation at home.

The heightened volatility in markets has tended to benefit the U.S. dollar as a store of liquidity. The United States is also a net energy exporter, giving it a relative advantage over Europe and much of Asia which are net importers.

The dollar was trading a touch lower early Monday, partly in reaction to the report that shipping might be escorted through the Strait of Hormuz.

The dollar eased to 159.47 yen, just off a 20-month top of 159.75, with investors wary in case a break of 160.00 triggers more warnings of intervention from Japan.

The euro was stuck near a seven-month low at $1.1440, threatening a breach of major chart support at $1.1392 that could unleash a retreat toward $1.1065.

In commodity markets, gold was little changed at $5,022 an ounce, having so far gotten scant support as a safe haven or as a hedge against inflation risks. [GOL/]