Cryptocurrency analyst Joao Wedson has observed that the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio for Bitcoin’s long-term holders has consistently established higher floors with each cycle low. According to Wedson, this rising trend suggests the new cycle is likely to set its base level at 0.85—a development that may shape investment strategies for months ahead.
MVRV Metric: A Window into Holder Sentiment
The MVRV ratio for long-term investors only considers Bitcoin wallets holding coins for 155 days or more. This metric compares the current market value of these positions to their aggregated acquisition cost. When the ratio dips below 1, it means this cohort is, on average, underwater. Such moments often correspond to the most challenging periods within bearish cycles, highlighting the convictions of steadfast holders under duress.
Compared with the standard MVRV, the long-term holder MVRV offers deeper insights into accumulation trends. Historically, the times when this group averages a loss have marked robust accumulation phases—periods when selling pressure fades and ownership further consolidates among committed investors.
Wedson’s Chart Analysis Reveals Historical Patterns
In his analysis, Wedson shared a chart covering data from 2012 through March 2026, juxtaposing the long-term holder MVRV with Bitcoin’s price on a logarithmic scale. Notably, the troughs in the last four market cycles formed successively higher bottoms, occurring at 0.51, 0.67, 0.72, and 0.78. The incremental rise between each base was typically around 0.05 to 0.06 points.
Projecting this trajectory, a diagonal trendline indicates the next floor could materialize near 0.85. With Bitcoin currently trading at around $70,600, the MVRV ratio for long-term holders still sits above this projected base—suggesting that the next significant low may not yet have been reached.
Structural Drivers Behind the Climbing MVRV Base
The steady rise in the MVRV floor is widely seen as evidence of a more mature investor base within Bitcoin’s ecosystem. In each cycle, more long-term holders have entered at higher prices, raising the group’s average cost basis and, in turn, pushing up the level at which the MVRV drops below 1.
Recent investments by institutions—especially through exchange-traded funds (ETFs)—have created a new class of long-term holders, many of whom accumulated Bitcoin in the $60,000-$100,000 range. This shift both lifts the realized value floor and helps smooth out metric volatility, hinting at the changing market composition.
Wedson’s Positioning Strategy and Caution
Wedson has set a 1.2-level for the long-term holder MVRV on the Alphractal platform. This threshold, positioned above the expected 0.85 base, acts as an early warning system—enabling him to prepare as the metric nears the anticipated accumulation zone.
“If the formation persists, the 0.85 region will mark the cycle’s strongest accumulation range. By setting an alarm at 1.2, I can be ready in advance as we approach this opportunity area,” Wedson explained as he outlined his rationale.
His tactical approach aims to facilitate systematic buying during periods when the metric suggests growing value, helping manage risk while capturing long-term accumulation opportunities.
Nevertheless, Wedson and market observers caution that, while higher base regions have occurred in past cycles, there’s no guarantee this trend will continue unchanged. Broader market dynamics—including macroeconomic variables and decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve—could still shape where the next cycle bottom settles.
