Bitcoin’s price has managed to hold firm above the $70,000 mark, as long-term holders maintain a stable cost base at this crucial level. Metrics indicate that these investors are neither selling off in panic nor chasing outsized profits. The on-chain indicator known as the Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (LTH-SOPR) has registered at 1.01—a number that analysts often interpret as the dividing line between accumulation and distribution phases in the market.
LTH-SOPR at 1.01: Gauging Market Sentiment
The LTH-SOPR measures whether wallets that have held Bitcoin for over 155 days are selling at a profit or a loss. Readings above 1 signal that these longer-term players are securing gains, while values below 1 suggest realized losses. The current 1.01 level points to a period where holders are parting with coins at breakeven or near their cost base, indicating neither exuberant profit-taking nor selloffs caused by fear.
A shared analysis chart illustrates the relationship between LTH-SOPR and Bitcoin price from January 2022 through March 2026. During the prolonged bear market of 2022, the index spent considerable time below 1, reflecting sales at a loss by seasoned holders. But the post-2023 period has seen the indicator sustain levels above 1, highlighting a renewed sense of confidence and less reactive trading among long-term Bitcoin participants.
Stability in the Face of Major Sell-Offs
On March 13, the key data point was not wild price swings, but rather notable shifts in on-chain activity. Wallets controlling between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC offloaded a substantial 16,100 BTC in a single day. Surprisingly, Bitcoin’s price dipped only 0.33%. Behind this resilience was an influx of demand: wallets holding over 10,000 BTC absorbed much of the selling, countering the immediate downward pressure. Meanwhile, wallets with 100 to 1,000 BTC also matched the selling, preventing a deeper decline expected during such heavy trading.
The analysis points out that the price’s minimal response to this significant selling volume demonstrates robust underlying demand at current levels. In other words, the market appears able to withstand powerful waves of supply without seeing dramatic drops.
Institutional ETF Inflows Strengthen Demand
Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which cater predominantly to institutional investors, have reinforced the demand side of the market. During the week of March 9–13, spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States recorded net inflows totaling $763.4 million. Notably, March 13 alone saw $180.4 million in new investments—helping offset the sweeping sell-off that same day and ensuring market stability.
In this environment, large “mega-whale” entities have absorbed coins sold by mid-sized investors. Simultaneously, continuing ETF inflows indicate that the market can absorb significant volumes. Meaningful absorption capacity has emerged, softening potential shocks from large sales.
Puell Multiple and Signs of Price Correction
The Puell Multiple index, another closely watched metric, currently stands at 0.60—indicating miner revenues are lagging behind long-term averages. Readings below 1 suggest that miners are less likely to trigger selling pressure. However, if the index nears 0.50, deeper price tests could be on the table. Elsewhere, the realized price at $54,400 is cited as a potential support zone, echoing bottom regions from previous cycles.
In short, the analysis underscores $70,000 as a “turning point base” for Bitcoin, while also drawing attention to the risk of a re-test below the $54,000 mark. As long as the LTH-SOPR remains above 1, it will serve as a leading indicator for the dominant scenario in the weeks to come.
