With the elections slated for later this year coming up fast, a Paradign study found that 36% of American voters now use prediction markets to trade on outcomes or browse for information, with about 35% of voters believing that prediction markets should be legal.
Why is crypto money flooding the 2026 midterm races?
The scale of intervention by the cryptocurrency industry in politics has reached historic levels during the 2026 midterm elections. Tracking data from Follow the Crypto shows that industry-linked groups have spent more than $271 million to influence this cycle.
Crypto-focused super PACs, such as Fairshake and the Digital Freedom Fund, now rank among the most well-funded political committees in the United States.
These groups are currently holding $221 million on hand, with another $100 million reportedly committed by major industry players.
In preparation for the March 17, 2026, Democratic primary in Illinois, crypto PACs have spent nearly $10 million to oppose Juliana Stratton for the Senate. Similarly, they have poured over $2.4 million into opposing La Shawn Ford for Illinois’ 7th House District.
Meanwhile, Barry Moore in Alabama has received over $5 million in support for his Senate run, while Christian Menefee in Texas has seen over $1.5 million in backing for his House race.
In Florida, Randy Fine won a special election for the State House after receiving $1.6 million in crypto-linked support.
Are prediction markets replacing traditional polling for voters?
Crypto interests have gone from the fringes of American politics to becoming a key manifesto item, highlighting how the electoral landscape has evolved since 2024.
To that effect, a new poll conducted by Echelon Insights for Paradigm in February 2026 found that 36% of likely voters now use prediction markets. 11% of these voters actively put money on outcomes. 19% browse the odds for information but do not trade, and 6% do both.
38% of voters aged 18-34 have put money down on prediction markets, but only 3% of those 65 or older have done the same.
Interestingly, the poll found that users of these markets are more socially active than those who don’t use them. About 87% of prediction market users talk to their family members weekly, and they are much more likely to host guests or participate in sports, disproving the idea that digital finance leads to social isolation.
Despite the high usage of prediction markets, only 35% of voters believe these markets should be legal, and many of them want guardrails. For instance, 15% believe that contracts involving war or terror should be prohibited. Still, the voters generally view prediction markets more favorably than “short selling” in the stock market.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) recently released an Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (ANPR) to ask for public feedback on how to regulate prediction markets. They also released a “Staff Advisory” to guide platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket on how to legally list event contracts.
The SEC and CFTC recently agreed to work together to protect customers while allowing lawful innovation in the crypto and prediction market sectors.
