Bitcoin’s impressive performance during major geopolitical and financial upheavals in recent years has caught the spotlight. According to a newly published report analyzing seven significant international crises, Bitcoin delivered positive returns in every situation, while equities and gold failed to escape losses during some periods.
Bitcoin’s Track Record Across Multiple Crises
The report examined market reactions following seven events, ranging from mounting tensions between the United States and Iran, to the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, and the regional banking crisis in the U.S. For each episode, the 60-day returns of the S&P 500, gold, and Bitcoin were compared. The findings revealed that after the U.S.-Iran standoff, the S&P 500 slid 7 percent and gold gained 6 percent, yet Bitcoin surged a notable 20 percent over the same period.
In March 2020, as the Covid-19 pandemic rattled global markets, all three assets began recovering. Bitcoin led the pack, climbing 21 percent, while gold and the S&P 500 posted more modest gains of 3 percent and 2 percent respectively. When the Russia-Ukraine war began in February 2022, gold dropped 9 percent, the S&P 500 advanced 3 percent, and Bitcoin once again posted the highest return at 15 percent.
During the regional U.S. banking turmoil in March 2023, Bitcoin registered its strongest crisis-era result with a 32 percent gain. In contrast, gold increased by 11 percent and the S&P 500 added just 4 percent. Only during the financial shock surrounding the Japanese yen in August 2024 did Bitcoin underperform, with a gain of just 3 percent, while both the S&P 500 and gold rose by 7 and 9 percent respectively.
Average Returns and Key Observations
Broadly, the report found that Bitcoin consistently achieved positive results in all seven crisis periods examined, averaging around an 18 percent return over the 60-day windows. The S&P 500 and gold trailed with average gains of approximately 3 percent and 4 percent. While equities and gold turned negative during two of the examined events, Bitcoin never did, with even its lowest return remaining above zero.
Whether Bitcoin can be considered a safe haven in financial turmoil has long divided the crypto community. Observers point out that in the 2022 bear market, Bitcoin lost significant value alongside other riskier assets as monetary policy tightened worldwide. Yet the report underscores that outside of periods dominated by monetary tightening, Bitcoin’s behavior diverged—showing particular strength amid geopolitical turmoil and financial shocks.
Recent Developments in the Iran Crisis
The report’s most up-to-date figures come from the crisis tied to Iran beginning in February 2026. Thirteen days into the crisis, as both stocks and gold moved into negative territory, Bitcoin was already up 14 percent. However, with the full 60-day window still pending, total gains may still fluctuate depending on further developments in Iran and broader macroeconomic trends.
Crucially, the report does not definitively classify Bitcoin as a traditional safe haven, focusing instead on empirical performance during real-world crises. Notably, except for a single financial shock in 2024, Bitcoin generated higher returns than both stocks and gold during six out of seven analyzed incidents.
