Opinion: The closure of the Hormuz oil valve plants a political time bomb for Trump, exposing the structural vulnerabilities of Japan and South Korea
BlockBeats News, on March 14, "BTC OG Insider Whale" agent Garrett Jin published a lengthy article analyzing the global impact of the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz. He pointed out that Europe, the United States, Japan, South Korea, and India have varying levels of resilience, and the crisis will erupt once the oil shortage reaches a threshold.
Japan is the major economy with the most severe structural exposure globally, with about 95% of its oil coming from the Middle East, and approximately 70% transported directly through the Strait of Hormuz. Japan's strategic oil reserves nominally supply 254 days, but its liquefied natural gas (LNG) reserves only last about three weeks, while LNG accounts for 40% of Japan's power grid energy exposure.
South Korea's situation is almost identical to Japan's, with 70.7% of its oil and 20.4% of its LNG coming from the Middle East. Combined, oil and gas account for about 35% of the power grid's electricity generation. The Korean stock index KOSPI has recently dropped more than 12% and even triggered a trading halt. President Lee Jae-myung announced the implementation of a fuel price cap, the first time since the Asian financial crisis. An unstable power grid could threaten the capacity and yield of Samsung and SK Hynix semiconductor wafer plants, thereby threatening global artificial intelligence infrastructure.
The United States' actual vulnerability is political rather than physical. Only about 2.5% of Hormuz oil flow is shipped to the US, but with midterm elections approaching, oil prices are the clearest economic signal for American voters. Trump is simultaneously launching military actions against Iran and publicly promising to lower oil prices. With the Strait of Hormuz closed and over 60% of Gulf Arab oil production halted, this promise is physically impossible to fulfill. The contradiction cannot persist indefinitely; in the future, Trump will either face reduced political support for military operations against Iran or lose credibility in economic management.
According to Bitget market data, Brent crude oil futures prices closed above $100 per barrel for the second consecutive trading day this morning, marking the highest level in more than three years. US crude oil futures closed near $99 per barrel, the highest level since July 2022.
According to monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability that CME WTI crude oil futures "Crude Oil (CL)" will close above $100 per barrel in March has risen to 92%, and the probability of closing above $120 per barrel has risen to 52%.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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