XRP to $21.5? Data Analyst Says Real Phase 4 Rally Will Begin Once This Happens

Crypto investor and data analyst CW has presented a technical outlook suggesting that a significant upward move for XRP could be approaching.

In an X post, CW shared a long-term chart comparing previous market cycles and outlined what he describes as a multi-phase structure that has historically preceded major price rallies.

The chart, created using TradingView data, highlights several repeating phases across multiple years of XRP price action. CW’s analysis divides the market structure into four distinct phases.

According to his interpretation, earlier cycles suggest that after a prolonged consolidation period and a series of corrective movements, the asset eventually enters what he calls “Phase 4,” which corresponds to a strong upward expansion.

In the post, CW wrote, “A green candlestick pattern has appeared in $XRP.” He explained that while this signal alone does not confirm the start of a major rally, it may indicate that the market is approaching the conditions required for a larger bullish move.

A green candlestick pattern has appeared in $XRP.

Once the sub-indicator show a bullish signal, the $XRP's real Phase 4 rally will begin.

According to the previous pattern, the expected target is $21.5, the Fibonacci level 6.618.

It will show bullish signal very soon. pic.twitter.com/cNqT7URzud

— CW (@CW8900) March 12, 2026

Indicator Signal Could Mark Start of “Real Phase 4 Rally”

CW’s analysis places particular importance on a sub-indicator shown beneath the price chart. According to his explanation, the indicator has historically provided confirmation shortly before major rallies occurred in earlier cycles.

He stated that once the indicator produces a bullish signal, XRP could begin what he describes as the “real Phase 4 rally.” His chart overlays historical structures that appear to show a similar sequence forming in the current market cycle.

CW wrote that the indicator “will show a bullish signal very soon,” suggesting that confirmation may occur in the near term if the historical pattern continues to unfold.

The chart also includes a projected target based on Fibonacci extension levels. CW noted specifically that the 6.618 Fibonacci level is a potential destination during the expansion phase.

Fibonacci Projection Places Potential Target at $21.5

According to CW’s interpretation of previous cycles, the expansion phase that follows the confirmation signal could push XRP toward significantly higher levels.

He stated, “According to the previous pattern, the expected target is $21.5, the Fibonacci level 6.618.” The projection is based on comparisons between earlier market structures and the current formation shown in the chart.

The analysis suggests that once Phase 4 begins, the price could move rapidly as momentum builds. However, the projection relies on the assumption that the present cycle continues to follow patterns similar to those observed in prior market expansions.

Community Response Questions Structural Confirmation

The analysis also prompted responses from other market participants who examined the chart and its assumptions. An X user identified as Volga commented on the cyclical comparison used in CW’s projection.

Volga wrote, “Cycle comparisons are interesting, but markets rarely repeat the same expansion path twice.” The comment emphasized that while historical structures can provide context, market behavior often changes between cycles.

Volga also noted that the key issue may not be the projected price target itself but whether the market structure supports a sustained move. The user stated, “The real question isn’t the target — it’s whether price builds acceptance before it.”

According to Volga, many parabolic projections fail because market positioning becomes crowded too early, which can weaken momentum before a rally. The comment concluded with a question directed at CW’s framework, asking what specific structural signals would confirm that Phase 4 has officially begun.