Geopolitical tensions reignite, global markets revisit the 2022 playbook in search of safe havens

汇通财经2026/03/13 13:27

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⑴ The outbreak of war in the Middle East has triggered a major shock in the energy market, with investors seeking guidance by comparing the market response to the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict. The chief economist at wealth management firm Forvis Mazars pointed out that the ongoing global trade war already poses potential inflationary pressure, and the surge in oil prices will further intensify this situation.⑵ Volatility in the crude oil market is approaching 2022 levels. Brent oil prices have soared by about 40% in two weeks, nearing the $120 mark on Monday, while the increase during the same period in 2022 was 15%. William Blair's macro analyst believes that global oil supply has shifted from the "frictionless" state of the past decade to a new normal of continuous shocks. The US Dollar Index has also strengthened, rising 2.6% since the outbreak of the conflict, matching the increase seen in 2022.⑶ However, the performance of safe-haven assets is completely different from 2022. The yield on Germany's 10-year government bonds has jumped by 30 basis points, whereas it fell by more than 10 basis points during the same period four years ago. The market is digesting inflation expectations much faster, but the eurozone's 5-year forward inflation swap remains stable around 2.18%, close to the ECB's target. Gold has uncharacteristically fallen by about 3%, compared to a nearly 8% rise in 2022. Royal Bank of Canada strategists analyzed that, due to the crisis's stronger direct link to the energy market, investors' demand for "universal hedging tools" has weakened.⑷ European stock markets have replicated the decline from four years ago, but the drop has been halved. The STOXX 600 index has fallen 5% in two weeks, much less than the 10% drop in 2022. Barclays strategists estimate that if oil prices remain around $100, the index could fall to 550 points, about 13% below the pre-war closing. It is worth noting that European stock markets were at historic highs before the conflict, benefiting from capital flows from the US and supportive stimulus policies, whereas in 2022, the market had already priced in expectations of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.⑸ Volatility indicators show divergence. The CBOE Oil Volatility Index has surged to a five-year high of 120%, surpassing the 2022 peak of 102%. However, overall stock market volatility, as measured by the VIX index, is around 25, far below the 60 seen in April 2025; the bond market MOVE index has risen to 95, still below the early March 2022 level of 140; and foreign exchange volatility remains basically unchanged.

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October 8 - Better Home & Finance (BETR.O), a mortgage and home equity financing company, saw its stock price rise 3.8% to $10.30 in pre-market trading after announcing a share repurchase plan. BETR stated that its board of directors has approved a stock buyback program of up to $30 million, with an initial phase of $10 million to kick off the repurchase. The company plans to adjust the pace of the repurchase based on realized operational cost savings and asset disposal progress, such as the proposed sale of its UK bank subsidiary. The buyback program is set to expire on October 8, 2027. In August, BETR forecasted that its Q3 revenue would be below Wall Street expectations as it focuses on partnership opportunities and accelerating the development of its home equity credit business. As of the previous trading day's close, the company's market capitalization was approximately $175 million. As of Wednesday, the stock has dropped about 70% year-to-date. According to LSEG data, seven out of eight analysts rate the stock as "strong buy" or "buy," with one rating it as "hold"; the median target price is $25. (For the convenience of non-English speakers, Reuters provides translated automated reports in several other languages. As automated translations may contain errors or lack required context, Reuters does not guarantee the accuracy of these texts and provides them simply for convenience. Reuters accepts no liability for any damage or loss arising from the use of automated translation.)

路透社•2026/10/08 13:36

Fed Governor Waller leaves room for hawkishness: More rate hikes are needed to support inflation decline, not necessarily on a monthly basis.

Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that if the data meets expectations, there will be further interest rate hikes. The core PCE year-on-year rate at 3% is still too high, and the recent monetary policy focus remains on fighting inflation.

智通财经•2026/10/08 13:18

Fed Governor Waller leaves room for hawkishness: More rate hikes are needed to support inflation decline, not necessarily on a monthly basis.

Updated: Viatris will acquire pain therapy manufacturer Pacira BioSciences for 1.65 billions dollars.

The second paragraph adds stock information, while the fifth, eighth, and ninth paragraphs provide additional details. Background information is supplemented in the sixth, seventh, tenth, and eleventh paragraphs. Reuters, October 8 – Pharmaceutical company Viatris (VTRS.O) will acquire Pacira BioSciences (PCRX.O) in an all-cash deal worth $1.65 billions, adding two non-opioid painkillers to its portfolio, the companies said on Thursday. Viatris will acquire Pacira at $36.50 per share, representing a 44.8% premium to the latest closing price. Pacira’s stock rose by 44% in premarket trading. Pacira’s non-opioid painkillers, Exparel and Zilretta, generated sales in 2025 of $575.1 millions and $116.6 millions respectively. Exparel is used to relieve acute pain after surgery, and Zilretta is used to treat pain associated with knee osteoarthritis. Viatris stated it expects to expand the reach of these products in selected target markets. Viatris CEO Scott Smith stated, “the addition of these medications creates a synergy with our rapid-acting meloxicam market opportunities, positioning us as a leader in non-opioid pain management.” The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is expected to make a decision by December 27 on the approval application for rapid-acting meloxicam for the treatment of moderate to severe acute pain. Viatris plans to finance the acquisition primarily with idle cash, and the remainder through short-term borrowing. The company noted the deal will have minimal impact on its total leverage ratio. In August, Viatris (link) raised its annual adjusted profit forecast, counting on strong brand drug sales and growth in the Chinese market. The pharmaceutical company had previously faced (link) production setbacks in its Indian operations, including a fire at its Nashik plant in western India and increased competition in the generic drug market, raising concerns about the resilience and growth of its core business. The company stated the transaction is expected to close by the end of 2026 and will immediately enhance Viatris’s financial guidance metrics. (For non-native English speakers, Reuters provides automated translations of its reports into several other languages. Since automated translations may contain errors or lack necessary context, Reuters does not guarantee their accuracy and provides them for convenience only. Reuters accepts no liability for any damage or loss caused by the use of automated translation.)

路透社•2026/10/08 12:56

Oppenheimer Adjusts Acuity Price Target to $415 From $440, Maintains Outperform Rating

08:51 AM EDT, 10/08/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Acuity Brands (AYI) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $400.57, according to analysts polled by FactSet. (MT Newswires covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www.mtnewswires.com/contact-us)

MT newswire•2026/10/08 12:51