The US Department of Labor will release the latest PCE data tonight at 9:30, and the market expects the new data to be less than optimistic.
BlockBeats News, March 13, at 8:30 PM Friday in the Eastern Eight District, the United States will release the January PCE Price Index. The market expects the PCE data to rise 2.9% year-on-year, consistent with the previous value, and increase 0.3% month-on-month, slowing down from last month's 0.4%. On the core side, the market expects the core PCE Price Index's year-on-year growth rate to accelerate slightly to 3.1%, marking the largest increase since April 2024, while the month-on-month increase remains unchanged at 0.4%.
As the "trump card" data of the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the PCE Price Index directly references CPI data in several price categories. After the latest CPI data was released, economists quickly raised their forecasts for the core PCE Price Index for February, which will be announced on April 9. Several economists expect the index to rise 0.4% for the second consecutive month, and some are even prepared for a larger increase.
This divergence stems from the different weighting methods each inflation indicator assigns to specific items. The CPI, compiled by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, places great emphasis on housing costs. A key indicator known as "primary residence rent" has only increased by 0.1% since January, the lowest level in five years. At the same time, it gives higher weight to used car prices, which have now declined for three consecutive months.
On the other hand, the PCE Price Index places more importance on certain specific commodity costs. Economists point out that products like computer software and jewelry saw significant increases in February's CPI, and their impact on PCE inflation is even greater. Forecasters from Barclays, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America expect core PCE commodity prices to rise by at least 0.8% in February, which is ten times the increase shown in the latest CPI report.
After carefully sorting through CPI data that overlaps with PCE, it is found that not only January, but February's PCE data may also be less optimistic. Moreover, all this happened before the outbreak of the US-Iran war, which led to soaring prices for energy, fertilizers, and other costs.
Additionally, it is worth noting that a shocking phenomenon has emerged in the two main indicators measuring the price levels faced by US consumers: the PCE data, which almost always appears more "moderate" than CPI data, is now heating up significantly.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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