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Caixin Futures: Most agricultural products strengthen, palm oil cautiously bullish

Caixin Futures: Most agricultural products strengthen, palm oil cautiously bullish

汇通财经汇通财经2026/03/12 12:56
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⑴ Regarding palm oil, despite the announcement by the US and the International Energy Agency to release strategic reserves, the release speed is far below the supply gap. Some institutions believe that the blockage of the strait renders the release ineffective. In terms of operations, the correlation between oils and crude oil is high, leading to increased volatility, but the medium-term bullish pattern remains unchanged. Strict entry points and position control are required. In the spot market, Guangdong 24-degree palm oil rose by 280 yuan to 9,730 yuan. ⑵ Regarding soybean meal, the surge in crude oil has driven vegetable oils stronger, which in turn pushes up the cost of imported soybeans. This is the main logic behind the strength of soybean meal. Additionally, the hedging demand for agricultural products should not be ignored. In the short term, soybean meal is expected to mainly follow the developments of the Middle East conflict and operate passively. Domestic soybean meal inventories remain high, but the pressure is decreasing rapidly, supporting the strong performance of soybean meal month-on-month. ⑶ Regarding corn, the main logic for its strong price performance is that inventories at northern ports are still relatively low year-on-year. However, losses among downstream enterprises and warmer weather may limit short-term upward momentum. From a valuation perspective, current corn prices are relatively high. It is recommended to focus on buying on dips after a pullback. ⑷ Regarding live hogs, the absolute value of breeding sow inventory remains above the normal retention level, coupled with excellent production performance, indicating that medium-term supply is still large. In the short term, the previous batch of secondary fattening has not yet been fully digested, slaughtering is gradually recovering, supply remains strong, and post-holiday demand is weak. The spot market continues to weaken, so it is recommended to focus on short positions when prices are high. ⑸ Regarding eggs, post-holiday sales recovery is slow, logistics have not fully resumed, and currently, sales are mainly within production areas. From the perspective of supply and demand, supply remains large in February and March, and terminal demand is in the off-season. It is recommended to focus on short positions when prices are high and pay attention to the pace of subsequent inventory replenishment by traders.
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