Global bond market "wipes out gains" as geopolitical shocks reverse early-year bull run

Golden Ten Data reported on March 12 that concerns over a resurgence of inflation triggered by high oil prices have sparked a wave of sell-offs in the global bond market, erasing all gains since the beginning of the year. The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index, which tracks the total returns of investment-grade government and corporate bonds, has seen its gains for 2026 wiped out. As oil prices climbed above $100 per barrel on Thursday, the selling momentum intensified further. As of February 27, the index had once risen by 2.1% this year, highlighting how quickly geopolitical shocks can reverse market sentiment. As investors price in the risk of escalating conflicts, U.S. Treasury yields have climbed to multi-month highs this week. Many fund managers are betting that inflationary pressures will outweigh the traditional safe-haven support for sovereign bonds. Although the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged next week, persistent price pressures may make it difficult for the Fed to find reasons to resume rate cuts in the coming months, even as the labor market is softening.