IIF: Middle East conflict hits European economy through price shocks rather than supply disruptions

汇通财经2026/03/12 02:39

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(1) The International Institute of Finance (IIF) pointed out in a report that Europe’s rejection of Russian energy supplies, combined with the current escalation of the Iran situation, has caused the European economy to lose its original resilience, making it highly susceptible to global price shocks and market volatility. (2) The report stated that although Europe has made progress in reducing its dependence on Russian energy since 2022, the continent remains very sensitive to fluctuations in global energy prices. The current Iran conflict’s impact on Europe is mainly reflected in the oil market, liquefied natural gas supply routes, and shipping costs, rather than directly causing supply disruptions. (3) The IIF concluded that the impact of the Middle East conflict on Europe stems from global price increases: the sharp rise in oil and natural gas prices is rapidly pushing up EU inflation, as companies quickly pass on energy costs to the prices of goods and services. (4) The association estimates that a 25% increase in Brent crude oil prices will trigger a surge in inflation across Europe, while also causing real GDP growth to slow in the coming quarters. If oil prices stabilize between $110 and $120 per barrel, Europe will face a severe inflation shock and an even more serious economic growth downturn.

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Updates with closing prices By Satoshi Sugiyama TOKYO, Oct 8 (Reuters) - Japanese shares fell more than 1% on Thursday, down for a second consecutive session, as investors paused after recent rallies, wary of the US rate outlook, higher yields and geopolitical tensions. The Nikkei 225 Index .N225 fell 1.42% to close at 69,042.11, while the broader Topix .TOPX slid 1.51% to 4,091.46. "Japanese shares had risen at a rapid pace through yesterday, and profit-taking has since picked up. That selling pressure appears to be continuing today," said Hiroki Takei, strategist at Resona Holdings. Japanese AI-related shares were subdued even after Samsung Electronics 005930.KS, the world's largest memory chipmaker, projected a nearly ninefold jump in third-quarter operating profit from the same period last year. Shares of chipmaker Rohm 6963.T lost 5.19%, the biggest percentage drag in nearly a month, while technology investor SoftBank Group 9984.T shed 4.28% and Tokyo Electron 8035.T dropped 2.48%. Concerns over US monetary policy remained in focus after Federal Reserve minutes released on Wednesday showed most participants signalling another rate hike by year-end. Market participants remained wary of French and Italian debt markets, with rising energy prices and fiscal concerns keeping sentiment fragile. Geopolitical tensions also dampened risk appetite, as increased attacks on shipping in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz fuelled concerns over Middle East oil supplies and pushed crude prices higher. Breadth was negative, with 165 decliners in the Nikkei 225 against 56 advancers and four unchanged. The largest percentage losers in the Nikkei were semiconductor silicon wafer supplier Sumco 3436.T, down 5.73%, followed by construction machinery maker Komatsu 6301.T, down 5.52%, and agricultural machinery and equipment maker Kubota Corporation 6326.T, down 5.42%. The largest percentage gainers were cybersecurity software company Trend Micro 4704.T, up 3.89%, followed by IT consulting firm Nomura Research Institute 4307.T, whic

Reuters•2026/10/08 06:54