CICC: The risk of "quasi-stagflation" in the United States is further rising

金十2026/03/10 00:13

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According to Golden Ten Data on March 10, CICC stated in its 2026 macro outlook report that the biggest risk facing the US economy is "quasi-stagflation." A series of recent developments indicate that this judgment is gradually being validated and further strengthened. On one hand, the US-Iran conflict has pushed up oil prices, and the driving forces behind inflation are increasingly shifting toward structural factors, making inflation stickiness likely to persist. On the other hand, the substitution effect of AI on white-collar jobs is beginning to emerge, suppressing the momentum of employment expansion; meanwhile, risks in private credit continue to rise, and once the industry enters a clearing phase, financial conditions may tighten accordingly, thereby dragging on economic growth. On the policy front, the Federal Reserve faces a dilemma. CICC believes that the timing of interest rate cuts may be postponed to the second half of the year; the stimulus effect brought by tax cuts is to some extent offset by tariff increases and a rise in household savings willingness, so the actual boost may be lower than expected. Against this backdrop, US economic growth is expected to slow, risk premiums in capital markets are likely to rise, and capital allocation logic may shift from yield-chasing to a greater focus on risk aversion.

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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