NZD/USD bounces off key moving averages as battle to stay above 0.59 continues
NZD/USD rose about 0.6% on Monday, closing near 0.5950 after knocking on 0.5850 in the early session. The pair found support near the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) before recovering to close above the 50-day EMA, producing a candle with a long lower wick, suggesting buyers are defending the 0.5850 to 0.5900 zone. Since peaking near 0.6090 in early February, the pair has been grinding lower, forming lower highs while holding above the 0.5850 area.
Monday's better-than-expected Chinese Consumer Price Index (CPI) data (1.3% YoY versus 0.8% consensus) provided a lift across antipodean currencies, though the Strait of Hormuz crisis continues to cap risk appetite. Chinese February trade data on Tuesday is the next test of regional demand, with exports forecast at 7.1% YoY and imports at 6.3%.
On the domestic side, New Zealand's February Business NZ Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is due Thursday after a solid 55.2 reading in January. Wednesday's US February CPI release is the week's dominant event for the US Dollar side of the pair, with headline inflation expected at 0.3% MoM and 2.4% YoY.
NZD/USD daily chart
Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, NZD/USD trades at 0.5936. The near-term bias is mildly bearish as spot continues to retreat from the early-month highs while holding well above the clustered 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages near 0.59 and 0.58, which preserve a broader upward context. Price action has slipped back into the recent range, and the Stochastic oscillator has turned higher from the low-30s, signalling fading downside momentum rather than a confirmed bullish reversal, which argues for a consolidative to softer tone while below recent peaks.
Initial resistance emerges at 0.6000, where recent swing highs align with the latest rejection area, followed by 0.6050 as the next barrier if buyers regain control. On the downside, immediate support is at 0.5900, protecting a deeper pullback toward 0.5850, where the rising 50-day EMA begins to reinforce the prior breakout area. A sustained break below 0.5850 would expose the 0.5800 zone, closer to the 200-day EMA, and would weaken the medium-term bullish structure.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
Impact of Surging US Treasury Yields: US Stock PE Ratio Shrinks Significantly, Mag 7 Dominates Small Caps
The 10-year US Treasury yield has reached a 24-year high, quietly reshaping the landscape of the US stock market. The S&P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio has compressed from 22.2 times at the beginning of the year to 19.3 times, marking a “three-tier decline in valuation.” Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 Index is approaching technical correction territory, while Mag 7 stocks like Microsoft and Nvidia continue to support the broader market with the AI narrative and strong earnings. Market concentration is nearing historic extremes.
Has the "only buyer" of Korean stocks left early?
Over the past two months, Samsung and SK Hynix have alone absorbed over $25 billion in sell pressure. Now, Samsung Electronics has completed its buybacks ahead of schedule, and SK Hynix is left with only about $500 million to finish up. On their "exit" day, the KOSPI instantly dropped by 2%. More dangerously, Samsung's Q3 results missed expectations for both revenue and profit. Coupled with ETF rebalancing and options expiry, a "liquidity vacuum" has become a reality, leaving the question of who will step in as the biggest mystery.
Strong Demand for AI Memory Drives Growth Outlook! DA Davidson Raises Micron Technology (MU.US) Target Price to $3,000
DA Davidson reiterated its "Buy" rating on Micron Technology and significantly raised its target price from $2,100 to $3,000. This target price represents nearly 176% upside compared to the stock's closing price of $1,088.00 on Wednesday.
Trump Says Military Actions Against Iran “Must End,” Media Reveals US Military Has Prepared “Pre-Election Strike Plan,” Oil Prices Surge
Although Trump has stated that "the action must be wrapped up," whether the approach will be "soft or tough" remains undecided. More importantly, in order to boost the election campaign, the White House is planning a "limited strike" against Iran before the election, which is in stark contrast to the previous mainstream market expectation of "pre-election restraint." Coupled with the storm in the Gulf of Mexico shutting down over 25% of crude oil production, frequent attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, and record highs in transnational shipping costs, Brent crude oil has risen above $101.
Crypto prices
More
