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Caixin Futures: Broad Strength in Energy and Chemical Products, Crude Oil Fluctuates at High Levels

Caixin Futures: Broad Strength in Energy and Chemical Products, Crude Oil Fluctuates at High Levels

汇通财经汇通财经2026/03/09 13:04
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(1) Crude Oil: The US-Iran conflict has escalated, with the US and Israel striking Iranian refineries over the weekend. Several Middle Eastern countries, including Iraq and Kuwait, have announced production cuts. The situation is still developing, and both WTI and Brent crude prices once surged to $110. Although the International Energy Agency and the G7 announced the release of reserves, leading to a pullback in overseas markets, the Strait of Hormuz remains the core focus. Close attention must be paid to the situation, as oil prices remain high and volatile. (2) Fuel Oil: The intensity of the US-Iran war has increased, and domestic reliance on high-sulfur fuel oil imports is high, with Iranian imports accounting for 20% of domestic imports. The supply gap, combined with rigid demand for marine fuel bunkering in the Middle East, is driving prices strongly upward. (3) Glass: The production and sales rates of enterprises in the Shahe market are generally high, with most prices being raised. Prices of enterprises in Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan remain mainly stable, and overall shipments have improved compared to the previous period. The fundamentals for glass are not strong, with inventories increasing by 4.77% last week, but market sentiment is relatively strong. In addition, the "golden March and silver April" peak season expectations provide some support for prices, which are expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias. (4) Soda Ash: Today, the domestic soda ash market is trending stronger, with some companies raising their quotations. The operating rate is 85.39%, and inventories decreased by 24,500 tons on Monday. In terms of basis quotations, Hebei warehouse delivery for May is 30-40, Shahe delivery for May is flat, and Hubei warehouse delivery for May is 10. Overall, the short-term macro environment is warm, but mid-term supply remains high, with limited drivers, so wide fluctuations are expected. (5) Caustic Soda: Today, most companies in the Shandong liquid caustic soda market continued to raise their quotations, with mainstream transactions for 32% ion-exchange caustic soda in northern Shandong at 640-670. Downstream demand is mainly rigid. As the Middle East, a net export region, has suspended operations due to the war, global buyers are urgently turning to China for supplies, boosting the market. Overall, the impact of geopolitics on chemical product supply has expanded, sentiment has improved, and the market is expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias. (6) Methanol: Today, spot prices in Taicang are 2,865 yuan, up 335 yuan; prices in northern Inner Mongolia are 2,332.5 yuan, up 330 yuan. Last week, plant inventories increased by 17,100 tons, while port inventories decreased by 3,200 tons, with inventories still relatively high. The international situation remains unstable, and recent prices are mostly affected by macro sentiment. In the medium to long term, geopolitical conflicts will inevitably cause delays and reductions in imported supplies. If the Middle East situation continues to escalate, the methanol market may trend stronger.
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