Economist: In addition to tonight's non-farm payroll data, pay attention to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' annual population adjustment.

Golden Ten Data reported on March 6 that the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release new population control data that was delayed last year due to a 43-day government shutdown. BNP Paribas Chief U.S. Economist Eggerhoff stated that the latest data from the Census Bureau shows the Bureau of Labor Statistics has been overestimating population growth since the end of 2024. It is expected that in the revised January data, the population aged 16 and above will be reduced by about 590,000, the labor force population will be reduced by about 370,000, and the number of employed persons in the household survey will also be similarly adjusted downward. Using the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ experimental series, which smooths past population control and immigration data, combined with the latest census data, it is expected that the U.S. labor force will grow by only 900,000 in 2025, and the overall labor force growth in 2026 is expected to be well below 500,000. The population control adjustment will only affect the January household survey data. This means that month-on-month data for household employment, unemployment, and labor force indicators will not be directly comparable. BofA Securities economist Mishra noted that the good news is that key ratios (unemployment rate and labor force participation rate) are usually minimally affected. Last year, the population control adjustment increased both ratios by 0.1 percentage points, while this year the risk is that the new control adjustment may cause both ratios to decline slightly.