A crypto exchange report: If oil prices remain above $110, bitcoin may break its correlation with US stocks and trigger the “digital gold” narrative.
PANews, March 4 — According to a macro briefing released by a certain exchange’s research institute, reviewing eight major energy supply disruptions from 1979 to 2019, oil price movements have shown a “two-stage” pattern: The first stage is the “hesitation period” (0-30 days), where market pricing is driven by uncertainty rather than scarcity, with a historical average increase of only about 2%. However, in the current conflict, Brent crude oil has already risen by 9% on the fifth day, indicating that the market is pricing in tail risks ahead of time. The second stage is the “scarcity digestion period” (30-360 days), when Gulf countries’ 25-day inventory buffer is depleted and forced production shutdowns begin, with a historical average increase of 44%, and extreme cases reaching 110%-140%.
The report points out that the daily crude oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped from the normal 16 million barrels to 4 million barrels, Gulf countries’ inventories have only a 25-day buffer left, and when tank utilization reaches the critical threshold of 85%, oil fields will be forced to shut down, accelerating oil prices into the “scarcity digestion period.” If oil prices remain at $85-95, CPI will rise by 30-40 basis points, which is still manageable; if oil prices rise to $115-130, CPI will increase by 110-150 basis points, and the Federal Reserve may postpone rate cuts until 2027; if oil prices break through $180, CPI will rise by more than 300 basis points, potentially triggering stagflation. Bitcoin currently maintains a correlation above 0.9 with tech stocks; if oil prices stay above $110, CPI rises to 3%, and real interest rates exceed 2.5%, it will trigger a sell-off in tech stocks. At that point, the correlation between Bitcoin and US stocks may break, triggering a shift to the “digital gold” narrative. Key indicators to watch include: vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf countries’ inventory utilization rate, March 11 CPI data, March 18 Federal Reserve guidance, whether the 10-year TIPS real interest rate breaks above 2.5%, whether the 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and the IGV index falls below 0.5, and whether ETF fund flows turn net positive.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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