Geopolitical Escalation Exacerbates, Weakens Rate Cut Expectations, March Fed Rate Cut Probability Only 2.7%

As of market close, mining and banking stocks recorded the largest declines this week, as investors await the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting scheduled for October 13. Boosted by a deal between Google and Constellation Energy, uranium mining stocks surged. On Wednesday, the Australian stock market closed slightly lower amid volatile trading, with global yields and oil prices remaining high, leading investors to adopt a wait-and-see attitude. The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index closed down 0.1% at 8,727.70 points, having risen as much as 0.2% during the session. The index had gained more than 1% over the past three trading days. The recent bond market sell-off kept the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury above 5.3%, dampening risk appetite among investors. Oil prices rose amid storm threats in the Gulf of Mexico and escalating tensions between Saudi Arabia and Houthi forces. According to BetaShares investment strategist Hugh Lam, despite persistently high bond yields, the stock market remains resilient with global corporate earnings serving as the main support; however, sustaining the rally through year-end is becoming increasingly difficult, especially for long-duration growth stocks. Rising yields signal the market expects higher borrowing costs for governments and corporations, and also anticipates sustained inflation. On the day, banking stocks fell 0.6%, marking their worst single-day performance in nearly a week. Of the “big four” banks, Westpac saw the largest drop, down 1.2%. The market is awaiting the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy meeting minutes next week for insights into policymakers’ views on inflation, which prompted the central bank to raise interest rates last week to their highest levels in 15 years. September quarter consumer price data, due at the end of October, may provide further clues on the direction of interest rates. The mining sub-index slipped 0.3%, dragged down by falling copper prices. Industry leaders BHP fell 0.7% and Rio Tinto dropped 0.6%. Energy stocks rose 0.5%, driven by uranium miners after Google signed a 20-year power purchase agreement linked to nuclear power generation. Component stocks Deep Yellow, Paladin Energy, and NexGen Energy Ltd gained between 2.5% and 4.6%. New Zealand’s S&P/NZX 50 Index fell 0.1%, closing at 13,684.04 points.