Caixin Futures Agricultural Products Market Update: Crude Oil Strength Drives Oils Higher, Soy Complex Remains Bearish, Live Hog and Egg Prices Under Pressure

⑴ Palm Oil: Today, the domestic oil and fat sector showed a strong and volatile performance, driven by the escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and a sharp rise in crude oil prices. Additionally, Indonesia’s increase in palm oil export taxes and Malaysia’s month-on-month production decline in February provided further support, with palm oil leading the gains. However, domestic palm oil inventories remain high and Malaysia’s export data is weak, limiting the upside. The market is characterized by sentiment-driven volatility constrained by fundamentals. In the spot market, East China’s 24-degree palm oil spot price rose by 70 RMB to 8,880 RMB/ton.⑵ Soybean Meal: Internationally, the US has raised global import tariff rates to 15%, which may weaken China’s willingness to purchase US soybeans. The USDA outlook conference predicts that US soybean planting area will increase in 2026, with production potentially reaching 4.45 billions bushels, up 4.4% year-on-year, presenting an overall bearish outlook. Domestically, soybean meal inventories remain high, supply pressure persists, and spot prices have fluctuated little compared to before the holiday, with average trading sentiment. It is recommended to adopt a range-bound trading strategy and consider short positions when prices are high.⑶ Corn: The main logic behind the strong performance of corn prices is that inventories at northern ports remain relatively low year-on-year. However, losses among downstream enterprises and warmer weather, which is unfavorable for storage, may lead to insufficient momentum for further short-term price increases. Attention should be paid to post-holiday farmer grain sales progress and national reserve auction information. It is expected that short-term spot price fluctuations will be limited overall, and it is recommended to focus on buying on dips.⑷ Live Hog: Although the sow inventory has declined month-on-month, the absolute value is still higher than the normal retention level, and production performance remains strong, so mid-term supply is expected to remain high. In the short term, the pre-holiday secondary fattening has not been fully digested, and recent slaughter volumes are gradually recovering, with supply still strong. Combined with weak post-holiday demand, spot prices continue to weaken. It is recommended to focus on short positions when prices are high and pay attention to changes in slaughter volumes.⑸ Eggs: Post-holiday sales and purchases are recovering slowly, logistics have not fully resumed, and currently sales are mainly within production areas. From a supply and demand perspective, supply remains high in February and March, while terminal demand is in the off-season. It is recommended to focus on short positions when prices are high and pay attention to the pace of subsequent inventory replenishment by traders.