10x Research: Caution Needed for Bear Trap Risks Despite Short-Term Bitcoin Rebound

Latest developments on October 7th – Kelsian Group (KLS.AX) shares briefly rose 1% to A$3.93 before narrowing gains to 0.3% by midday in Sydney. Morningstar holds a positive view on the transport operator’s recently announced A$150 million (US$104.76 million) sale of travel assets in mid-September. The investment research firm noted that this divestment relieves the transportation and travel operator from reliance on discretionary-spending businesses such as resorts, cruises, and tours. It also stated that the sale enables management to focus more on core operations and moderately reduces capital intensity. However, Morningstar pointed out that the sale means profits from the marine segment will still be "discretionary in nature." It added that the sale will leave the company’s earnings mainly dependent on its US interstate coach business, which is characterized by short-term contracts without cost-adjustment mechanisms and serves highly volatile sectors such as technology, oil, and gas. Year to date, the share price is down 8.2%. (US$1 = A$1.4318) (For the convenience of non-English speakers, Reuters automatically translates its reports into several other languages. Automated translation may be inaccurate or may not completely reflect the required context; Reuters does not guarantee the accuracy of translated texts, which are provided solely for reader convenience. Reuters is not responsible for any harm or loss arising from the use of automatic translation.)

October 7th - Treasury Wine Estates (TWE.AX) shares recovered a 1.8% loss in afternoon trading and were basically flat. Jefferies maintained a "Hold" rating on TWE and an AUD 6 target price, stating that although excess inventory and rising costs in the US market are limiting upside potential, TWE’s underperformance relative to the broader market has been narrowing. The brokerage expects a 1.2% increase in EBIT for fiscal year 2027 and notes that the US wine market is showing moderate growth in the higher price segment. Jefferies mentioned that the price segment below $20 still faces significant challenges and emphasized that low-priced wines continue to face pressure. The brokerage pointed out that competitor Constellation Brands’ (STZ.N) wine and spirits business saw organic sales increase by 17.2% in the second quarter, with sales to retailers up by 10.2%. TWE shares have risen 6.1% year-to-date. (For the convenience of non-English speakers, Reuters offers automated translations of its report into a number of other languages. Automated translation may contain errors or may not capture the intended context, and Reuters does not guarantee the accuracy of this text. It is provided only for convenience, and Reuters is not liable for any damage or loss caused by the use of automated translation.)